The next big quake: Who's going down?

We all know the big one's coming — one day, there'll be another quake in the Valley, and the rest of the country will fall into the ocean.

But seriously, who would get hit if the earth moved under our feet? IT Pro quotes Stanford geophysicist Greg Beroza:

We expect many of the areas hit hard along the San Andreas fault in 1906 to be hit hard again [in the next major quake].

And just where is that? The map excerpted above shows its general geographical line. But we need to know which Valley hot spots will get rocked and rolled — will the Googleplex in Mountain View get shaken to look even more off-kilter? Will a Cupertino quake mash Apple?

Some fancy simulations (via Boing Boing) show the real-time progress of the 1906 quake. But still, we need more data! So until some clever Dick plots the San Andreas fault onto Google Maps (and e-mails a link to tips@valleywag.com), here's the vaguely eyeballed, unprofessional version — a Google Maps hybrid shot thrown into MS Paint.

Money shot and trumped-up analysis after the jump.

Earthquake model predicts Silicon Valley's future [IT Pro]
1906 Ground Motion Simulations [US Geological Survey via Boing Boing]
Satellite map of Silicon Valley [Google Maps]

The next big quake: Who's going down?

Looks like most of the Valley is clear of the actual fault. What we have to worry about is the eastern push that might hit Cupertino. The animated simulation mentioned earlier shows the worst shaking coming down past San Francisco, through the western channel of the peninsula, and threatening Woodside, Sunnyvale, and Cupertino. San Jose looks relatively safe — you always gotta be the boring one, San Jose.