This week's Economist looks at Media Predict, a sort of virtual futures market for creative (or not so) ideas (which also partners with publishers for crazy-ass publishing reality-contest ideas). But what about the rest?

Artists or their agents post samples of their work (a book chapter, say, or a television pilot). Traders armed with a free wad of virtual cash buy shares in the material they feel has the greatest potential. The idea is that as traders buy and sell shares in competing content, the cream will float to the top—where entertainment-industry bosses can skim it off.

The article notes that focus testing has proven historically unreliable in forecasting hits: Panel members are often lead along by the loudmouth "alpha leaders" of the group, skewing results. (Hey, it's almost like our jury system.) "By contrast," it explains, "prediction markets can be remarkably accurate." We've played around on the site a little, and it seems kind of fun. We're not sure how successful it'll be in terms of getting new talent recognized, but just in case, we suggest you register and then put all your cash on Every 28 Days. C'mon, people, we can game this system.

Place your bets [Economist]
Media Predict

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