Actor Matt Damon has leapt rather unwisely into the political fray. The Bourne Identity star—usually more discreet about his political opinions than hometown friend Ben Affleck—says Sarah Palin's rise is "like a really bad Disney movie." Let's put that provocative comparison to one side and examine the source of the Hollywood star's alarm. "Do the actuary tables and there's a one out of three chance, if not more, that McCain doesn't survive his first term and it'll be President Palin," says Damon. The actor played a math savant in Oscar-winning movie Good Will Hunting—but those skills aren't in evidence here. A cursory glance at the statistics shows that a 72-year-old male has a 3.3% chance of dying within the year—and a relatively modest 15% likelihood he won't last the four years of a presidential term. So, Matt Damon: about half right. Hey, that's not bad for a Hollywood actor! (After the jump, a video of the interview, which won't convert any waverers.)