Tonight is the premiere of The Real World: Brooklyn. Can you feel the electric tingle in the air? We can't either. So let's try to get some excitement building by making some predictions!

What will happen in the thundering and lumbering first hour of the haggard reality show's new season? Well, based on what we've seen over the show's two-decade history, it's sort of easy to guess. There's a pretty simple plot structure, usually arranged by cast member. So!

Baya Apparently this strangely-named (but not for this show, Baya on the Real World is like Meghan anywhere else—a weird name for the RW would be like Aquatopeka or Ninjizza) girl is from Utah, is a hip-hop hippie, wants to dance professionally, and has panic attacks. So, we're guessing that Aquatopeka will—tasting the sweet grimy air that exists out from under Mormonism's thumb for the first time—get spectacularly drunk and hit on the cutest of the straight boys. We hope she falls down the stairs, hurts her good dancin' leg, and hurls herself into the briny Atlantic.

Chet We already kind of know a lot about him. His name is Joe Pitt Chet Cannon and he is also from Utah and is a crazy Mormon who is probably gay (look how trendy he dresses!) and MTV really wanted to get him laid. So let's see. We suspect he'll spend time refraining from alcohol and not talking about sex, for which the rest of the cast members—at this point soaked in booze (one has already been reduced to a little flaming heap in the corner) and sticking their genitals in/on whatever they can—will give him the hairy eyeball and judge judge judge. But he'll defend himself amiably and then excuse him self to furtively masturbate in the confessional while thinking about the buttery golden loins of Brigham Young.

Devyn It'll be a cold day in July before I recognize Missouri, so let's just say that this beauty queen (Miss America Teen winner!) is from a land west of Illinois and east of Kansas. She has really big boobs and is also a black person. So she might spend her time talking about black/white issues in a producer-prodded finger snapping way, or she may play it cool and just kind of eye everyone suspiciously while sitting in a corner with the other person of some sort of color. (I say this not because this is how she should act, so don't comment-frag me. It's just how that shit goes down on this show.)

JD That other person of color I was talking about. The second horrible, othering thing about JD is that he is a gay person who does gay things like having gay sex with gay men. Gay men like Anderson Cooper! So that is going to be a problem for the cutest straight guy (who is probably entangled with Kumbaya somewhere at this point) but he'll act like, aw it's no thang. Chet the blonde Mormon secret geigh will nod and smile politely then, in confessional (post-wank), will say "it's just... just not OK in my beliefs." And then we'll all groan and throw something at the TV and I'll shriek "get me something more to drink, this is so bad" and then I'll realize that I'm all alone at 25 still watching this show. Thanks, JD. He'll probably also cry. Because apparently his father did some bad things to him and that's baggage worth rummaging through, tossing things onto the floor willynilly as if his life were a hotel room.

Katelynn You thought that ethnic homo had problems. Katelynn is a transgendered person who doesn't know how to spell Caitlin. Her roommates will probably act really awkward and jittery and kind of look at her weird and some will be more jovial than others (Chet will be weeping) and JD will say it's fabulous but mostly, in the secret confessionals, everyone will say what lurks in the deepest, judgiest sub-basements of their booze-splattered hearts: "Why doesn't she know how to spell Caitlin?"

Ryan Ryan is the seemingly regular straight guy who has lots and lots and lots of sublimated rage. So in the first episode, expect him to assess the assets of asses and cheerily greet the gay dudes Morm and Colored, and then kind of give the stink eye to that tall, husky-voiced, big-handed lady who apparently doesn't know how to spell. At some point in the first hour he'll probably have a drunkish heart-to-heart with one of the pretty girls about his buried, sorrowful past (he's an Iraq war vet who was, like, in the shit) but then he'll brush it off and say "whoo, we're here to party! Hello Brooklyn!!!" to which Brooklyn will respond "clean up after yourself, why don't you. For heaven's sake."

Sarah This is the tatooed lesbo chick who's now dating a dude and who isn't really that rebellious after all, she was just molested when she was younger. Hard to say yet whether she'll be a condescending, secularly pious teetotaler or if she'll be a drunken, horrifying mess like that poor sad girl from the San Diego season who ended up dying. Let's hope it's the former. She might be the one to have the lookin'-at-the-view deep dish with Ryan, or she might run screeching to the gay people so she can talk about herself. Prove me wrong, Sarah. Prove me wrong.

Scott Scott is my best friend with whom I ride buses all the time. So I know exactly what he's going to do. He's going to: be dopily friendly like some sort of pesky golden retriever, shake everyone's hand like the good Masshole boy he is, talk a lot about his hardscrabble past but in noble "what doesn't kill me..." Good Will Hunting isms, then take off his shirt, then act uncomfortable around the 'mos and the people who can't spell. He won't be featured much because he's featureless. A scandal-free workout machine. And my best friend. OK. I think I can come out with it. (Don't kill me Scotty!) We're dating.

Or I'm totally wrong, because MTV is previewing this season like it's more thoughtful and less about drinking and fucking, but I kind of doubt it because people love the drinking and the fucking and who cares if it's Brooklyn, Bangladesh, or Biloxi, people just like watching strapping idiot youngsters drinking and fucking. No matter what. That is last true currency in this bankrupt world. To paraphrase Lester Bangs. Sort of.

See you at 10.