Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sean Penn, Milk
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Old folks, plus old folks with Brad Pitt's face digitally superimposed on them. Pitt would be the likeliest to fall to a surging dark horse; some call this performance his best and most expansive yet, while others find it too recessive to reward.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Revolutionary Road's hopes at this point lay entirely on Kate Winslet, so Leonardo DiCaprio's as doomed as his character. Richard Jenkins could surge in for the inexplicably well-liked The Visitor, but his performance is about as subtle and reactive as Pitt's. If Jenkins could promise Angelina Jolie as his date, that would probably help.