The Golden Globe Awards, Hollywood's second-goldenest night (and certainly its globiest), will go down on live TV this Sunday night. Who will win? Who should win?? After the jump we'll break down the big categories to figure it all out.

Because this is all just a preamble to the Oscars (nominations come out on February 2nd — yes, the same day as the Lost premiere. Best day ever in the world ever!!!), we're only going to focus on the movie categories. Not because TV doesn't count — working on TV is a wonderful and valid lifestyle choice — but because the real draw is the one-time possibility of the movie awards. The TV stuff can try again next year (except for, you know, the made-for movies and miniseries, but feh). Movies have but only one chance. Below you'll find the likely winners, the deserving winners, and who needs a win to still be a player at the big Oscar ball in March.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Supporting Actress
The Noms: Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Mo'Nique (Precious), Michelle Rodriguez (Avatar... kidding), Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Who Needs to Win: Mo'Nique, lest she start to become an early favorite that fades, as happened before with a recent comedian turned serious person, Eddie Murphy. (Who did actually win the Globe, but not the Oscar he was once a lock for.)
Who Will Win: Mo'Nique has basically won every award there is for this performance, a gut-punchingly good one that does, we think, stray a bit too far into caricature sometimes. There's no way she won't win the GG, and the Oscar.
Who Should Win: Vera Farmiga was groovy and assured (as she always is) in Up in the Air, but she didn't have that much to actually play until the end of the movie. So the ideal win would go to Mélanie Laurent from Inglourious Basterds, who wasn't, y'know, actually nominated.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Supporting Actor
The Noms: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Who Needs to Win: Waltz, for the same reasons as Mo'Nique.
Who Will Win: Gosh, pan-European actor Christoph Waltz and former Flava of Love: Charm School host Mo'Nique just have so much in common! The latest similarity is that they've both won many awards already and are complete locks for everything else from here until March 7th.
Who Should Win: We actually completely agree with this one. Waltz was mesmerizing in Basterds, as startling and creepily relaxed a villain as we've ever seen.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical (because they're the same thing, always!)
The Noms: Sandra Bullock (The Proposal... yes, really), Marion Cotilliard (Nine), Julia Roberts (Duplicity), Meryl Streep (It's Complicated), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Who Needs to Win: No one. Streep is in the only movie in this category that has a chance of getting an Oscar nod, and she will get it.
Who Will Win: There's a possibility that she could split the vote and that Sandra Bullock will sneak in and collect an award for just having a good year at the box office, but it's really more than likely that Streep will win for her delightful turn as Julia Child.
Who Should Win: Oddly enough? We'd give it to the French Chef too. Sure we have a biased boner for pretty much anything that Streep does, but she's just so damn good in that movie. Plus she gives the best acceptance speeches, so that'd be fun.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical
The Noms: Matt Damon (The Informant!), Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine!), Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes!), Joseph Gordon-Levitt ((500) Days of Summer!), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man!)
Who Needs to Win: Matt Damon, if he hopes to take The Informant! to the Academys.
Who Will WIn: This is a tough category to call. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves musicals and loves Day-Lewis, so he might clinch it. But we're gonna go for a long-shot here and say that Damon will win as a thank you for also being in Invictus this year, and for just being a nice, smart actor.
Who Should Win: Paul Rudd for I Love You, Man. Two words: Totes magotes.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Actress, Real Movie
The Noms: Emily Blunt (How High 2: Queen Vicky Style), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side... yes, really), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Who Needs to Win: Emily Blunt or Helen Mirren. Theirs are the least heard-of films and one of them will lose their spot to Meryl Streep when the Academy smooshes Comedy and Drama together.
Who Will Win: Also not a terribly clear-cut category. Sidibe has a lot of buzz going, mostly because she's just so fun and bubbly in her press interviews. But An Education is terribly British and the HFPA is terribly foreign and Mulligan was terribly good, so we think she'll pick up the trophy.
Who Should Win: We would totally agree with Mulligan winning. In a fairly weak year for big, buzzy Serious Lady performances, she stands out as the most exciting.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Actor, Real Movie
The Noms: Jeff Bridges (Grizzled: The Musical), George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Tobey Maguire (Brothers... apparently!)
Who Needs to Win: Tobey Maguire! Because otherwise, no. But really either way, it's still a no.
Who Will Win: All but one of these actors are some of Hollywood's Most Likable Men, so this is a bit of a toss up. Let's toss out Maguire (because he's the not-likable one), Freeman (because he won not terribly long ago), and Bridges (because no one saw that movie). So between Clooney and Firth, we'd say the across-the-pond-leaning HFPA goes for Firth's subtle and understated work in a movie that was anything but. (Did not like.)
Who Should Win: Firth is a great actor and does have some great moments in that otherwise regrettable film, so sure, we'd be happy with that. Though if they wanted to do a write in and give it to Sharlto Copley from District 9, we wouldn't be mad.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Screenplay
The Noms: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker), Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Nancy Meyers (It's Complicated... yup)
Who Needs to Win: Quentin. If he doesn't, Reitman and Turner will have the definitive edge going into the AA's.
Who Will Win: It's really between Basterds and Up in the Air. While Basterds is ostensibly the better script, Up in the Air is more recent and much more of an awards-bait movie. We give the edge to Air, but wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way.
Who Should Win: Quentin. No script this year was more rambling and yet also tightly-woven. It's probably the most mature script he's ever written, and yet oddly the wildest.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Cartoon
The Noms: Up, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, Cloudy with a No Chance of Actually Winning
What Needs to Win: Fox, if it's still hoping to upset Up at the big Oscar show.
What Will Win: Up's broader appeal will beat out Wes Anderson's quirkier, indier Fox.
What Should Win: We don't know. We don't see cartoons. We're adults. (Kidding! Sort of.)

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Fancy Fag Weirdo/Terrorist Movie
The Noms: A Prophet (Freedom), The White Ribbon (Germany), The Maid (Chile), Baaria (It'ly)
What Needs to Win: Each of them, so the Oscar voters can say "Oh yeah, that one. I'll vote for that one."
What Will Win: No one's heard of any of these (not even the Foreign Press!) except for The White Ribbon, so it will win. Or not.
What Should Win: Well Tornatore did Baaria, and who doesn't like Cinema Paradiso? And the preview for A Prophet made it look really good. But we really like Michael Haneke and we've been trying to see The White Ribbon for a few weeks now, but it's only playing at Film Forum and it's just hard to find time, you know? But still, yeah, give it to The White Ribbon.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Picture, Hahas & Gays
The Noms: Nine, The Hangover, (500) Days of Bullshit, It's Complicated (Except It's Really Not), Julia Child & Some Annoying Woman in Queens
What Needs to Win: This is Nine's last opportunity to associate itself with awards glitter before the Oscar noms.
What Will Win: A toss-up! Though, again, the HFPA likes musicals, Nine sorta got pooped on by all the critics. The Hangover is just in there as a joke mostly. Honestly? It looks like it could be (500) Days of Twee, a movie about people with fake jobs who live in impossibly well-appointed apartments with huge walls made out of blackboard.
What Should Win: None of these ones, that's for sure. Maybe I Love You, Man. That was pretty funny. Oh, hell, just give it to that It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia Christmas special. That was basically a movie, plus it had the line: "I told you when I'm dead I don't want to be buried, just throw me in the trash." Ah, DeVito.

Shiny Balls: Your Golden Globes Field Guide

Best Picture, Drama
The Noms: Avatar, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, The Hurt Locker
What Needs to Win: None of 'em. In an Oscar year when there are 10 Best Picture slots, these will all appear on the list.
What Will Win: The buzz seems to be that, since they took their hair tentacles and splooged blue goo all over it, the HFPA will give this precious prize to Avatar. Which would be funny! If not that one, Up in the Air
What Should Win: Of the five up there, Basterds. If we're counting everything, District 9. It said exactly what Avatar was trying to say except better and for like a tenth of the budget.