So those Golden Globes guesses we made? Um, not so accurate! As we watched Sandra Bullock collect an award and Downey Jr. sweep in there for a win last night, we started thinking: WTF does this mean for the Oscars?
Well, we certainly aren't going to make any 100% absolute predictions about who will win the Academies (well at least not yet), but we can take a look at what's potentially changed for each of the major Oscar categories. Some things haven't changed, and others are suddenly up in the air.
Best Supporting Actress
Before the Globes: Mo'Nique was totally going to win the Oscar and everyone would applaud (for her and for themselves) and that would be Precious' big win.
At the Globes: Mo'Nique won!
After the Globes: Mo'Nique is totally going to win the Oscar and everyone will applaud (for her and for themselves) and that will be Precious' big win. The only new thing we know now is that her acceptance speech will be very serious, will be about touching, and will make little sense.
Best Supporting Actor
Before the Globes: Christoph Waltz was the shoo-in for everything because he's wonderful and weird.
At the Globes: Yep, we were right.
After the Globes: Waltz is still the shoe-in for the Oscar, and he will give a delightfully sprightly little European speech. That's wonderful and weird.
Best Screenplay, Adapted
Before the Globes: Up in the Air looked like the likely winner.
At the Globes: That film did indeed win the Best Screenplay prize at the Globes, which don't make a distinction between adapted and original.
After the Globes: The Oscar will very likely go to Air, especially because it doesn't have to compete with Quentin Tarantino.
Best Screenplay, Original
Before the Globes: Seemed a likely win for Inglourious Basterds.
At the Globes: The categories are smooshed, so Up in the Air edged it out.
After the Globes: The loss at the GG's may have slowed the film's momentum a little bit. Something crowd-pleasing like Up could sneak in there and dash Tarantino's Nazi blood-spattered dreams.
Before the Globes: George Clooney and Colin Firth seemed like possible front runners, with Morgan Freeman and Jeff Bridges getting friendly old man nominations.
At the Globes: Bridges wins.
After the Globes: To us, this pretty much sews it up for Bridges. A four-time nominee who's never been asked to wear the wedding dress, he's certainly due for it. He got a standing ovation at the Globes, gave a charmingly folksy speech, and he's been the quiet darkhorse all along. Academy voters love that shit. He's looking like a lock right now. The thing we care more about: Will Jeremy Renner (from The Hurt Locker) even get a nomination? Because he didn't get one for the Globes.
Before the Globes: Everyone was saying that it will be nice for Sandra Bullock to get her first Oscar nomination. No one was thinking "win."
At the Globes: Meryl Streep gets an unsurprising win for Julie & Julia on the comedy side, Bullock shocks and seemingly angers presenter Mickey Rourke by collecting the Serious Lady trophy for The Blind Side.
After the Globes: Well, this puts us in a pickle. Right now the five likely nominees will be: Streep for J&J, Bullock for My Pet Black Person, Gabourey Sidibe for Precious, Carey Mulligan for An Education, and either Helen Mirren for The Last Station or Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria. At this point Mirren or Blunt haven't the slightest chance of winning. Sidibe probably isn't in serious contention either (first timer, overshadowed by Mo'Nique). We'd expect ourselves to say that it's between Mulligan and Streep then, but we fear former might have lost a lot of her momentum. So could it be? Could Meryl Streep be vying against Sandra Bullock for an Oscar?? And if so, who wins? We'll put early money on Streep, just because she's Meryl Streep and it's been almost thirty years since she last won the prize, but people are reeeally rootin', in a general sort of way, for Sandy this year. Could Blind Side be her Erin Brokovich? It's looking more and more possible. And we're just not sure how we feel about that.
Before the Globes: Kathryn Bigelow was a favorite. She'd be the first lady to ever win, and The Hurt Locker was sharp and political.
At the Globes: James Cameron, beloved of the Hollywood Foreign Press, snags the trophy for Avatar. Even he cops to assuming that his ex-wife would be on the stage instead of him.
After the Globes: Cameron could win again for all of his technical wizardry, but we just don't see it happening. Bigelow's chances don't seem as sure as they did before she lost the GG, but we still have faith that voters will want to bestow some kind of award on Locker, and giving the recognition to a female director would be a great way to make Oscar history. Which the voters looove to do. (See: 2001)
Before the Globes: With 10 movies being nominated, it was pretty much anyone's game.
At the Globes: The Hangover wins in the Comedy category, Avatar gets the Drama.
After the Globes: The Hangover's win means it could be make the nominations list, which would be good for Oscar folks because, in theory, that means more people — like ad-valuable young men — could actually watch the Gay Super Bowl this year. Avatar's win means it just has more of a viable chance of actually winning the damn award, though we're guessing that the Academy goes a little more cerebral. We think it'll be a tight race between Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air, but with ten movies diluting the voting pool, the chunky-glasses' love for Up in the Air (and for George Clooney) will give it the necessary advantage.
Or, you know, we could be totally wrong! It's true that the Oscars are usually a bit more predictable than the Globes (the categories aren't split into genres, there's more time to analyze), but it's still a really strange year, with no clear favorites in anything but the supporting categories. That makes it exciting! And it also makes it frustrating.