For a variety of reasons, the winners in this years Oscars race have seemed clear-cut for weeks. Maybe it's because the nominations themselves this year contained few surprises or because of the heaping piles of trophies that the likes of Jennifer Lawrence and Argo have already picked up at the season's other awards shows. Maybe it's because of Nate Silver. Whatever. This year's Academy Awards have the potential to be the most boring in recent memory (and last year was really boring). We'll have to rely on host Seth MacFarlane to keep things lively. Come on, Seth! We're counting on you!
Just kidding, he'll suck, too.
Anyway, here are the best bets going into the show, my personal favorites and my own dreams that I've dreamed aside:
Best Picture: Argo*
Best Director: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln*
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln*
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook*
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln*
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables*
Best Writing – Original Screenplay: Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln – Tony Kushner from Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln by Doris Kearns Goodwin
Best Animated Feature: Brave – Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)
Best Documentary – Feature: Searching for Sugar Man – Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn
Best Documentary – Short Subject: Open Heart – Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern^
Best Live Action Short Film: Curfew^
Best Animated Short Film: Paperman^
Best Original Score: Lincoln – John Williams
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall – Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty – Paul N. J. Ottosson
Best Sound Mixing: Les Misérables – Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, and Simon Hayes
Best Production Design: Les Misérables – Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi – Claudio Miranda
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Misérables – Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina – Jacqueline Durran
Best Film Editing: Argo – William Goldenberg
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi – Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan de Boer, and Donald R. Elliott
* These are per Nate Silver's predictions. Django Unchained's Christoph Waltz seems like the more agreed-upon bet for Best Supporting Actor, but what are you gonna do? Disagree with Nate Silver? Fine, but it's your funeral.
^ These are categories containing a majority of nominees that I have no sense of, and for which little buzz exists. For these, I defer to the consensus of the experts that Golden Derby surveyed.
Of course, if the winners should deviate from this list, that would be surprising and thus good for the viewing experience. And if they don't, then you'll be able to marvel at how well Gawker did at naming all of the winners before the show. Win/win.
[Image via Getty.]