They reported in the earlier book how neither Ghoulyanni nor his boy Kerik saved Manhattan from crime forever; it was all due to the simple expedient of abortions available to black mothers. (They euphemized as "single mothers living up beyond 120th St.")
The logic is, if you don't birth criminals, they won't be out on the street causing trouble.
I never saw any comments on the proposition so I guess everybody agrees. #freakonomics
@apod78: That would be the big ol' stick with which to whack most of the book's arguments. My only defense of the authors is that I actually do think they understand this and are just being playful. But it's easy for the general audience to misread. #freakonomics
One of my pet peeves is when people dub those they disagree with some variation of stupid, when in fact intelligence is not the issue in play. This interaction is almost unavoidable when discussing politics with people who don't know very much about politics -- "can you believe they [take some position that not everyone agrees with]? Idiots, like I always said! The world is full of idiots."
While it is true by definition that people of above-average intelligence are a minority, the people saying this are usually not part of that minority. Very smart people can sometimes be wrong, yet they remain very smart. More pertinently, this interaction is usually between parties who are both completely average. #freakonomics
@Motoko Kusanagi: Nah, I actually had a whole graf about begging the question via a slippery working definition of "stupid," but I cut it because it was just too blowhardy, even for me. #freakonomics
@Solomon Grundy: Yes, this is a variant of an argument that religious types use to attempt to argue that it's necessary to believe even if you don't see the wisdom in something yourself. They ask: Why do many intelligent people believe in God if there weren't actually wisdom in believing in God?
The answer to this question is that there are plenty of really smart people who don't (for instance, 98% of the members National Academy of Sciences are atheists/agnostics). In the same way, there are many smart people who think Levitt and Dubner are experts who are blinded by their own narrow methodology. Most of the detractors are social psychologists, sociologists, neuroscientists, even economists...oh, and Dostoyevsky, too, not the biggest fan of rationalizing human behavior.
@i'm a bottle: To answer the question of those religious types another way, many intelligent people believe in God because of cognitive bias. The costs associated with mistaking a random event for something produced by a potential Great Friend in the Sky (a false positive) are arguably less than the costs of thinking an event is random when it is the result of a purposeful act of that Great (but now forsaken) Friend (the false negative). Fyodor be damned, we're back to rational choice!
I can't fully believe this (mainly I just wanted to be ironic), but I think it carries some weight. The value comes in assigning that weight properly, and that's where I stand with Levitt's use of economics, and some of the other controversial applications of the harder soft-sciences- evolutionary psychology in particular. Even if the majority of the work is demonstrable bullshit, the process is useful and every once in a while, the result is revolutionary. Discrediting an entire line of thinking because of some faulty reasoning or disingenuous evidence is throwing the baby out with the bath water. #freakonomics
@shostakobitch: Everytime I hear the phrase "we have to look at both sides of the issue" in reference to global warming or healthcare reform, I want to empty my glass on the utterer's shoes.
Once there was a drunk who lectured a lady of my acquaintence to that effect, and I asked, "Why?" He had never thought of it. "I don't know why," he said. Everybody says it, so it must be so.
If somebody believes in the Easter Bunny and Santa, we have to hear them out, despite us outgrowing such childhood fables as magical beings, the intelligence of the Common Man, and a free market economy. #freakonomics
Don't forget the chapter in which they can't figure out why ALL prostitutes don't become high-end escorts, and why 'trophy wives' don't become prostitutes. It's like Veronica Lodge wondering why poor people don't just use credit cards. #freakonomics
@Pizza!Pizza!Pizza!: Yeah - that's what actually got my attention first.
I thought the rise of behavioral and neuro economics would officially shut down this special brand of BS. Or at least make people more skeptical. #freakonomics
My partner was attending the U of C for law school at the height of the Freakonomics craze. Everybody in Hyde Park seemed to be reading it. The law students I knew were all taken with Posner (who works closely with Gary Becker) and Richard Epstein -- three wholly insufferable thinkers. Their zeal for applying economic principles was generally frightening and maddening. Well, anyway, we're out having dinner one night, and my partner's classmate makes the remark: "I read that crime rates are always higher around streets named 'Martin Luther King Boulevard.'" It turns out that she's not trying to make the banal argument that established black neighborhoods have higher crime rates just because they're black neighborhoods -- which is what I first think she's up to -- she's actually forwarding the thesis that the name of the street is the necessary and sufficient condition for higher crime rates. This is obviously an extreme example.
Well yes I mean basically the biggest problem with their shit is it's one big brainless correlation hunt. They find a statistical relationship and then totally misinterpret the causal cues. Economic behavioralism uses empirical data to support correlations and turn them into legitimate causal relationships. Freakonomics says "wouldn't it be fucked up if THIS was why abortions and income are correlated?" in an effort to make a book-selling, inflammatory conclusion with no basis whatsoever.
In their defense, I don't think Leavitt really sees his work as legitimate study - more of a food for thought thing. He's smart enough and credentialed enough to know what real research is. Pareene thinks research is googling a couple people that support his predetermined conclusions. I bet "people that disagree with X" is probably his most common search string, a process he views as a Search For Truth, based on the assumption that other bloggers and media personalities have done the research for him. This is scarcely true, because the media is basically built on people who can't be bothered to actually know fuck-all birthing consensus into fact. #freakonomics
@i'm a bottle: Ugh. One of my friends has a U of C MBA that must be of the same vintage. The guy applies half-understood economic theorettes to EVERYTHING. Breakfast cereal selection, child naming, fantasy football, etc. Any time he's provably wrong (which he is at a rate greater than random chance), he just shrugs and says that "there's still validity in taking an unconventional view." #freakonomics
@i'm a bottle: Dear God. I went to U of C law. And if I had a dollar for every time I heard bullshit like this I would have paid off my student loans already. #freakonomics
@i'm a bottle: Someone wiser and quicker on the draw should be able to find video but the "joke" does get a shout out on the wiki for streets named after King:
" It is a stereotype that any street named after King is in a rough neighborhood and is to be avoided. Picking up on this stereotype, the comedian Chris Rock has said, "If you find yourself on 'Martin Luther King Boulevard', run!""
@i'm a bottle: Uh, that website reproduces that article, but the website itself is defined as a hate-group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. [www.splcenter.org]
@autoclavicle: Uh huh, Virginia Dare. Thank you for the research. I had no idea what that website -- or Virginia Dare for that matter -- were. #freakonomics
@Foster Kamer: Good one. Also, UofC economics is thankfully at long last being seriously chipped away at by the recent financial crisis. Efficient markets, well, aren't. #freakonomics
I can't believe you forgot the part about how women should be high-end call girls. 'Cause it's a rational, logical choice of career for any young woman out there, pretty much. #freakonomics
Every statistics textbook begins with a statement to the effect that analysis must begin with expert knowledge.
Scholars such as Levitt, Dubner, Gladwell, and others have made careers of applying statistical methodology to data in fields far beyond their areas of expertise.
Because they lack expert knowledge, they put forth absurd hypotheses and interpretations of the data. It creates a lot of work for experts to sort out in interdisciplinary and popular discourse, and, as you say, it can create stress at cocktail parties.
@iplaudius: What really gets me about Freakonomics is the little snippets where they make themselves out to be modest and unassuming people who happen to be the greatest minds of this or any other century. You can feel the false modesty bleeding out of the ink. #freakonomics
Empirical Study is greater than Empirical Study, Poorly Conducted is greater than Rhetoric is greater than Disconnecting ranting is greater than Mythology.
@If_I_Had_a_Poodle: I'm against people who think they're against the establishment, but who haven't defined the establishment in such a way that they are excluded, and who have neither addressed nor even apprehended the obvious cognitive dissonance.
I don't think there's a word for that. #freakonomics
@If_I_Had_a_Poodle: I believe Hipster is the most accurate. Is that the word for people who complain about consumer culture but still buy things they don't need?
call me crazy but I have always thought we should wait till the new president actually does anything important before we start praising him. I mean he isn't even in office yet but you wouldn't be able to tell that by the amount of coverage he has gotten.
@taftsearlobe33: Praising is how you and Kurtz parse it. Covering is what the media does, probably because this is kind of a crucial time for whomever occupies the office, world history-wise and all.
His own paper's ombudsman recently came out to say the Post was biased in its coverage, and ran more negative stories about McCain than Obama during the campaign. Which kind of pissed me off. McCain ran a terrible campaign. He screwed up more. He picked a running mate who screwed up more. Obama, on the other hand, ran a flawless campaign and his running mate managed only to screw up a couple of times (all of them duly covered by the post).
So if one candidate runs a brilliant campaign and another runs a disastrous one, isn't it likely that more negative stories are going to appear about the crap one?
10/23/09
The logic is, if you don't birth criminals, they won't be out on the street causing trouble.
I never saw any comments on the proposition so I guess everybody agrees. #freakonomics
10/24/09
10/25/09
10/23/09
While it is true by definition that people of above-average intelligence are a minority, the people saying this are usually not part of that minority. Very smart people can sometimes be wrong, yet they remain very smart. More pertinently, this interaction is usually between parties who are both completely average. #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/24/09
10/24/09
The answer to this question is that there are plenty of really smart people who don't (for instance, 98% of the members National Academy of Sciences are atheists/agnostics). In the same way, there are many smart people who think Levitt and Dubner are experts who are blinded by their own narrow methodology. Most of the detractors are social psychologists, sociologists, neuroscientists, even economists...oh, and Dostoyevsky, too, not the biggest fan of rationalizing human behavior.
10/24/09
I can't fully believe this (mainly I just wanted to be ironic), but I think it carries some weight. The value comes in assigning that weight properly, and that's where I stand with Levitt's use of economics, and some of the other controversial applications of the harder soft-sciences- evolutionary psychology in particular. Even if the majority of the work is demonstrable bullshit, the process is useful and every once in a while, the result is revolutionary. Discrediting an entire line of thinking because of some faulty reasoning or disingenuous evidence is throwing the baby out with the bath water. #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
Once there was a drunk who lectured a lady of my acquaintence to that effect, and I asked, "Why?" He had never thought of it. "I don't know why," he said. Everybody says it, so it must be so.
If somebody believes in the Easter Bunny and Santa, we have to hear them out, despite us outgrowing such childhood fables as magical beings, the intelligence of the Common Man, and a free market economy. #freakonomics
10/25/09
10/25/09
#freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
I thought the rise of behavioral and neuro economics would officially shut down this special brand of BS. Or at least make people more skeptical. #freakonomics
10/23/09
How many street call-outs would it take to bring in the amount of cash which slipped through the fingers of Anna Nicole Smith, somebody. #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
Well yes I mean basically the biggest problem with their shit is it's one big brainless correlation hunt. They find a statistical relationship and then totally misinterpret the causal cues. Economic behavioralism uses empirical data to support correlations and turn them into legitimate causal relationships. Freakonomics says "wouldn't it be fucked up if THIS was why abortions and income are correlated?" in an effort to make a book-selling, inflammatory conclusion with no basis whatsoever.
In their defense, I don't think Leavitt really sees his work as legitimate study - more of a food for thought thing. He's smart enough and credentialed enough to know what real research is. Pareene thinks research is googling a couple people that support his predetermined conclusions. I bet "people that disagree with X" is probably his most common search string, a process he views as a Search For Truth, based on the assumption that other bloggers and media personalities have done the research for him. This is scarcely true, because the media is basically built on people who can't be bothered to actually know fuck-all birthing consensus into fact. #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
It's pretty much the same idea that she expressed, though she wrapped it in (pseudo)scientific seriousness.
[vdare.com]
10/23/09
" It is a stereotype that any street named after King is in a rough neighborhood and is to be avoided. Picking up on this stereotype, the comedian Chris Rock has said, "If you find yourself on 'Martin Luther King Boulevard', run!""
[en.wikipedia.org] #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
Posner enviserated the Kennedy Konspiracy Kooks. Utterly. Case Closed. #freakonomics
10/24/09
10/24/09
10/24/09
10/23/09
For 500: This would explain what percentage of H & M's sales? #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
Scholars such as Levitt, Dubner, Gladwell, and others have made careers of applying statistical methodology to data in fields far beyond their areas of expertise.
Because they lack expert knowledge, they put forth absurd hypotheses and interpretations of the data. It creates a lot of work for experts to sort out in interdisciplinary and popular discourse, and, as you say, it can create stress at cocktail parties.
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
Empirical Study is greater than Empirical Study, Poorly Conducted is greater than Rhetoric is greater than Disconnecting ranting is greater than Mythology.
10/23/09
10/23/09
10/23/09
Or it could just be time for there to be less journalism and more science #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
I don't think there's a word for that. #freakonomics
10/23/09
10/23/09
Whatever, it's close enough :) #freakonomics
11/17/08
11/18/08
11/17/08
So if one candidate runs a brilliant campaign and another runs a disastrous one, isn't it likely that more negative stories are going to appear about the crap one?
11/17/08
You know you've been hitting the Washington cocktail circuit way too long when you find yourself writing shit like that.