Last night, Andrea Mitchell tentatively tried to claim, once again, that McCain won "on points," everyone agreed that McCain was feistier and got better zingers in, everyone fixated on the "I'm not George Bush" line as the best of the debates, Joe the Plumber was supposed to be the story of the day, and overall everyone wanted a narrative shift to a McCain comeback, because that's a better story.

But the voters didn't care.

CBS undecideds: Obama 53, McCain 22. CNN poll: Obama 58, McCain 31. MediaCurves independents: Obama 60, McCain 30. John King tried to explain away his own poll's bias toward Democrats even as the independents they polled when for Obama by 26 points.

This is bad news for pundits! Because one very important role a pundit is supposed to play is recognizing and explaining the mood of the nation. They are supposed to predict, based on their experience and wisdom, what voters want to hear and what they will respond to. And this season, they've been dead fucking wrong, over and over again. But more importantly, the numbers are proving them wrong objectively, and they're forced to correct themselves immediately.

In previous election cycles, the numbers could say it was a narrow Gore victory or statistical tie, but the punditry could shift those numbers over a weekend through relentless repetition of the narrative they invented, making it a lopsided Bush gain by Monday. It's much, much harder for Maureen Dowd to control—or even reflect—the "narrative" of the campaign now, because the internet makes all the raw data available and everyone has access to it.

We never intend to write a "hooray the internet is correcting and democratizing the MSM" piece but in this instance it does seem to be a useful corrective to the tendency of people like Chris Matthews to mistake their own fevered imaginations for the mood of a nation.

This Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher already talks like a GOP pundit (he's got the accidental casual racism down!), and his aw shucks willingness to repeat ancient class war talking points to every camera in sight is actually a bit suspicious for a random voter, but the most important thing about Joe Wurzelbacher is his last name: it's the same as the last name of Charles Keating's son-in-law!

Keating's son-in-law, Robert Wurzelbacher, served a 40-month prison sentence in 1993 in connection with Keating's Lincoln Savings and Loan collapse. Since then, who knows what he's been up to, but there is a Robert Wurzelbacher who lives just outside of Cincinnati, owns a wood company, and donates to Republicans.

Meanwhile there is a Joseph Wurzelbacher who owns a painting company in Cincinnati! Along with a septic tank repair company!

These dots were all connected by a DailyKos diarist, who has no proof that Joe and Robert Wurzelbacher are related, but, you know, it's suspicious. The Wurzelbvacher connection was also made, amusingly, by this right-wing satirical blogger.

But regardless of whether Joe the Plumber is a Republican plant or not, one thing is for certain: he's not actually voting for McCain. Because the asshole isn't actually registered.

Update: Joe the Plumber doesn't pay taxes. At all. He is registered to vote though! But if there's a typo in his registration, which seems possible, his provisional ballot will probably be thrown away. Hah.

Like Hillary Clinton before him, McCain has allow himself to behave as the bitter, entitled political veteran, defeated again and again by a calm and competent rival. And circumstances are unlikely to rescue McCain from his inept performance and deteriorating poll numbers. Obama's winning issue, the economy, looks likely to remain a preeminent concern straight through to the election. Witness the sharp stock market decline Wednesday, even in the wake of still more unprecedented support for banks from federal officials.

After suffering upset defeats in 2000 and 2004, and while fighting the perception that Obama is cocky, Democrats and other observers are by and large reluctant to call the election for Obama with two weeks left to go. But McCain is now out of options and far behind. Even if he were to suddenly conjure a strategy that could significantly improve his numbers, he'll be undermined at every turn by the fallout from his angry theatrics last night, captured brilliantly in videos like the two below. Only a miracle, or some very dirty dirt on Obama, can save him now.

Via Wonkette:

Via Cajun Boy (along with the photo! UPDATE: which is very real!):

Thanks to McCain, Joe's name was mentioned 13 times in the opening minutes of the debate alone, according to Reuters. McCain tried to use him to show how Obama is a typical tax-and-spend liberal who will soak workaday Rust Belt entrepreneurs and force them to sell their F-150 pickups or whatever.

But the ploy backfired when McCain tried to say Obama's health insurance plan would fine Joe for failing to carry coverage on himself.

Asked how much he would fine Joe for not carrying health coverage, Obama replied "zero," sending McCain into one of the many fits of insane, frightening blinking that afflicted him throughout the evening. Obama's plan, you see, exempts small businesses, so Joe will be fine. Zing!

Obama also probably scored some serious Ohio points when he responded to a McCain attack on his free trade policies by calling for tougher enforcement of existing trade agreements and fairer deals in the future. He also wisely disengaged from a discussion of dirty campaigning, an issue on which he could have scored some tactical points, by saying economic woes of everyday people are more important than hurt feelings on the campaign trail. Both responses should play well with blue-collar swing voters concerned about unemployment and the economic meltdown.

Anyway, it's safe to say that one blue-collar worker's opinion of the debate will be especially swingy: Joe Wurzelbacher's. Our guess he's still in the tank for McCain, who made him famous. But only if the Republican nominee represented his views fairly. Decide for yourself whether that's the case; the video of Joe's original interaction with Obama is below.

UPDATE: Joe isn't saying who he's voting for! But he still thinks Obama wants to redistribute his wealth, so that gives you a clue.

Debates where the candidates sit at the same table almost always feautre more lively discussion than the boring podium ones. The candidates have a harder time delivering speeches to an audience or to the camera and they sometimes accidentally engage in discussion with each other. Or they just snipe back and forth, like Cheney and John Edwards in 2004. (That debate was awesome. GAY DAUGHTERS FOR EVERYONE!)

Who knows what crazy tactic or stunt McCain will try but it will probably fall flat. Obama will be serious and cool like before. If Obama's current lead is momentum than that momentum will increase. If it is a high that will tighten as we get closer to election day (our theory!) it will tighten a bit.

And you know even if it is interesting it probably won't "matter" except in the only way the last two debates "mattered": as part of the ritual of finally deciding that one of these jokers will be ok to see on tv for the next four years.

The end!!!

Conservatives are miserable that McCain lost last night. He pissed away the election! It was his last shot at winning! He never delivered the knock-out blow! He'd lost it already. Seriously. What could he have done, last night, that would've been a game-changer? Anything? He tried a stunt—"the Treasury Department will buy all the mortgages!"—but it just sounded like a stunt (also that is a great way to remind Republicans that they never liked you to begin with, by proposing a plan to the left of Obama).

He was a little bit nicer, a bit jokier, but also much more critical of Obama in ways that made more sense than last time. What else could he have done? Magically appear 20 years younger? The only way to win this year on policy is to run to the left of the Democrats and the only way to win on character is to be more youthful and serious and new and comfortably familiar than Obama.

McCain lost before he showed up. Once he showed up he looked old and tired. It'd be cruel to hand that man the presidency in a time like this.

Tina Brown: "During the campaign McCain has aged dramatically. Like Dorian Gray, the bargains he has made with his conscience are reflected in the mirror. He has developed a strange Jimmy Cagney rasp and new verbal eccentricities that seem to have fused the speaking styles of Bob Dole and Ross Perot."

John Heilemann: "He rattled around onstage looking slightly lost, making hokey jokes that fell flat in the hall, offering edgy barbs at Obama (and even Tom Brokaw!), and telling hoary stories that referenced Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt, Tip O'Neill, and Herbert Hoover — historically significant figures who reinforced the image of the Arizona senator as yesterday's man."

Rich Lowry: "I thought McCain was good. It's as passionate and well-informed as he's ever been on domestic policy. His debate briefers did their job well. I think he repeatedly scored points in the first hour, but they were jabs rather then crosses—blows that Obama could absorb."

And it should be noted that at The Corner they are convinced the only way McCain could've won this was to bring up William Ayers over and over and over again, to paint Obama as a radical leftist and to somehow get Real Americans to Wake Up and realize that this guy isn't who he says he is. Fittingly, their dissatisfaction with their mediocre candidate totally mirrors McCain's obvious shock that people are taking this Obama guy seriously.

And now that Obama's favorables are so high, now that everyone is pretty sure they do know this guy (the time to paint him as something foreign and secretly scary came months ago, and Obama passed that test just fine), trying to scare voters away from him just demonstrates your contempt for their judgment. You know, the sort of contempt liberals were all accused of feeling because we couldn't believe anyone would've voted for Bush. Everyone hates the voters!

We're pretty sure there isn't a "game-changer" of any kind available to the McCain campaign, and the best they can hope for is some sort of catastrophic meltdown by Obama. We're also pretty sure our debate preview was totally right!

McCain and Obama had their revenge in the end, showing Brokaw to be useless without his teleprompter. That minor embarrassment aside, CBS News' Bob Schieffer should impose similar discipline at the final debate next Wednesday. That would be an excellent way to get the White House press corps off on the right, confrontational note with the future subject of its coverage.

(Click the video at top to watch all the fireworks.)

"It is apparent Senator McCain has some disdain for Senator Obama," CNN's Wolf Blitzer said.

The attached video appears to show the snub, at least at first, but then McCain sticks out his hand — his left hand — like maybe he expects Obama to come back. Maybe he wants to exchange a special lefty shake with a fellow southpaw?? Watch the video above, then give your opinion of what happened in the poll below.

Interview With Emily Brill from Stanley Stuyvesant on Vimeo.

The night had split leadership with CBS winning the most viewers with Survivor: Gabon and the debate/analysis. But NBC took both the 18-49 demo and the 18-34 demo with its combination of My Name is Earl and the debate.

People still watch Survivor? Christ. Nation: doomed, as always.

And then she said Joe Biden's wife would be rewarded in heaven because she's a teacher. That would be Biden's second wife, after his first wife and year-old daughter were killed in a horrific car accident and are, in fact, now in heaven. Whoops.

Biden, meanwhile, landed some hard punches. But the key is that he didn't blow things for Obama by screwing up horridly, nor did Palin for McCain. Neither upended the race in either direction. Palin will now likely be kept sequestered from the mainstream media for the rest of the election, except perhaps under very controlled circumstances. And no one will pay much attention to Biden. Which means we can all go back to ignoring the running mates again, as God intended.

Winking graphic from Blogging Via Typewriter!

UPDATE: Some people are having trouble watching the video above. Here's the same video hosted on YouTube: