This math doesn't make sense to me. Here's how I read it:
First 1/4: Interested enough about the paper to read a story about its inner workings.
Second 1/4: Of those, interested enough in the issue to comment on it.
1/3: Of those, number of those commenters who are willing to pay.
It seems to me the number you solved for should simply tell me the exact number of people who commented on this story to support payment, assuming these proportions are correct (obviously the are not but that's beside the point). This does nothing to estimate more broadly how many of the 15 million would be willing to pay. In fact, just because 1/3 stated outright that they would be willing to pay does not necessarily mean that the other 2/3 are UNwilling to pay. Also, I don't think that not reading a story on the inner workings of the paper OR not commenting on it disqualifies a person as a possible future payer.
To me, it seems reasonable to guess that at least 10% of those 15 million would pay the subscription, and 1.5 million paying customers would help a lot more than just over 300k.
Or am I missing something? Please, someone, correct me if I am misunderstanding this. #newyorktimes
@MadamePsychosis: Essentially here I'm trying to figure out: Is this outpouring of commenter support really a sign of a revenue source the NYT can depend on as something viable and useful? And I say, no. You're right that there could be more people willing to pay, who are some silent minority. I'm taking a crack at guessing what percentage of all those online visitors would seriously pay. Even if the percentage is larger, factoring in the unspoken people you say, my guess is it's not a big enough revenue source to depend on as something truly important. And to the more specific question here of what the sudden outpouring of commenter support meant, I'm saying: It didn't really mean much. #newyorktimes
@Hamilton Nolan: Thanks for the response. I agree that Mediaite is overreacting to the "outpouring" of commenter support and that they shouldn’t use it conclude that putting up a pay wall is viable. However, I personally wouldn’t rule out a pay wall as a realistic option. On top of the individuals that would subscribe (and obviously my guess there is larger than yours, but who knows), I also bet most universities would work out deals to get their students access like they currently do with Lexis Nexis and JSTOR, widening the "paying subscriber" list to include a lot of tuition-paying students who are currently outside the 15 million monthly readers. So, you know, maybe they're not doomed. Maybe. #newyorktimes
I'd rather sell the midtown building, move to Newark, NJ to lower the overhead, and re-brand a little bit. Few people would notice the difference. #newyorktimes
Bah! Since I've yet to hear any really crazy things about her in the last twenty years, and she's mostly stayed away from all things VH1 reality, then yeah, I'm gonna call this one true...until Cornell releases their own statement otherwise. Or the Real Roxanne says she has a Ph.D. from Georgetown and there is some sort of fight to the death marked by door knocker earrings and Le Coq Sportif tracksuits.
Well, shit. Here I was about to paste in [www.news.cornell.edu] from Cornell itself in 2008 saying that she had earned her PhD. But it no longer says that! But it does say "This article was modified on Sept. 2, 2009."
@oudemia: But why would Cornell say she graduated if she never even attended? Are their records really so lousy that they don't know if someone attended their school? Is their PR dept. so bad that they can't fact-check before posting a news story on the school's website? Something does add up here.
BTW I was totally at that event last year (I am a grad student at Cornell), although I don't remember if she ever explicitly said that she got her PhD at Cornell.
@utensil42: No - they keep good records. I could do some asking around with folks I know in administration. My guess is that she does have the degree but it may be under an assumed identity, which would compromise her physical or financial safety somehow. This smells like a coverup on Cornell's end, not on Shante's end.
@saya: Dubius. I knew a screenwriter once. She used an alias in the online group where I met her, and wouldn't reveal her true name. She said she had to do that, because her real last name was the same as her father's, who was the chief of the Dept of Corrections in CA, and if ex-cons knew her name, she would be stalked. Real criminals would stalk her if they somehow encountered our group of 250 souls and realized there was a Chavez there. Hey, I know that name ...
Are you believing yet? She was a screenwriter, and she had no credits. She was actually the ex-wife of a teevee producer. They're all screenwriters without credit. Else they'd be stalked.
Wouldn't it be super easy for her to just say what her "alias" is and call it a rest? Can you really attend college under an alias? I attended college with a few Hollywood actresses (and actors) that didn't use their legal name as their professional name. If you'd look them up in the alumni directory under their acting name nothing would show up. When they were students, they had their name removed from the campus directory for "privacy" reasons. But they were students, and some of them did manage to graduate.
She can have my Ph.D. I'm not doing anything with it. She'll have to jump from social sciences to the humanities, however. Or she could just lie about that, too.
Try one more time re: Amazon $400. It did indeed cross the mark. This has been covered earlier at Valleywag 1.0 (see comments ) http://valleywag.gawker.com/204277/could-henry-blodget-be-a-15-billion-liability-easy
Are anuses safe from nothing? Not only must they do some truly horrific work, they can get cancer now? Where is the justice? This is terrible news. That poor soul. And god bless all our digestive tracts.
10/21/09
First 1/4: Interested enough about the paper to read a story about its inner workings.
Second 1/4: Of those, interested enough in the issue to comment on it.
1/3: Of those, number of those commenters who are willing to pay.
It seems to me the number you solved for should simply tell me the exact number of people who commented on this story to support payment, assuming these proportions are correct (obviously the are not but that's beside the point). This does nothing to estimate more broadly how many of the 15 million would be willing to pay. In fact, just because 1/3 stated outright that they would be willing to pay does not necessarily mean that the other 2/3 are UNwilling to pay. Also, I don't think that not reading a story on the inner workings of the paper OR not commenting on it disqualifies a person as a possible future payer.
To me, it seems reasonable to guess that at least 10% of those 15 million would pay the subscription, and 1.5 million paying customers would help a lot more than just over 300k.
Or am I missing something? Please, someone, correct me if I am misunderstanding this. #newyorktimes
10/21/09
10/21/09
10/21/09
10/21/09
I'd rather sell the midtown building, move to Newark, NJ to lower the overhead, and re-brand a little bit. Few people would notice the difference. #newyorktimes
10/21/09
10/21/09
10/21/09
Clever visual. #newyorktimes
09/02/09
09/02/09
09/02/09
09/02/09
"Shanté retired from hip-hop in 1995 and went on to earn a Ph.D. in psychology at Cornell."
BTW I was totally at that event last year (I am a grad student at Cornell), although I don't remember if she ever explicitly said that she got her PhD at Cornell.
09/02/09
09/02/09
Are you believing yet? She was a screenwriter, and she had no credits. She was actually the ex-wife of a teevee producer. They're all screenwriters without credit. Else they'd be stalked.
09/02/09
09/02/09
09/02/09
09/02/09
09/02/09
She's all stuck up. Why do I say that? Cause she wouldn't give a site like Slate no rap.
09/02/09
07/20/09
06/25/09
06/25/09
Are anuses safe from nothing? Not only must they do some truly horrific work, they can get cancer now? Where is the justice? This is terrible news. That poor soul. And god bless all our digestive tracts.
06/25/09
06/25/09
In her honor, let us all eat a tremendous amount of ruffage this evening.
06/25/09
06/25/09