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New York, 9:36 PM
Sun Nov 29
11 posts in the last 24 hours

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  • posts about #financiapocalypse more →

    Why GM's Still Worth Something

    CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash

    New York Magazine's Happiest Editorblogger

    The Fall of the Almost-Rich

    Can Upper Class Journalists Cover the Fall of the Rich?

    ForbesAutos.com Staff Laid Off, I Start Saying Nicer Things To Ray Wert, Nick Denton

    Tesla To Finally Notify Detroit Workers Today They Were Laid Off Two Days Ago

    Automaker Lays Off Detroit Office With Blog Post

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    Dsmvwl  Admin  Promote to frontpage Approve user Ban user ×
    Image of Hello Mister Walrus Hello Mister Walrus
    04/22/09

    In reply to Why GM's Still Worth Something
    Um, GM stock is essentially a call option on them not filing for bankruptcy. Yes they probably will file for bankruptcy, but there is a small chance (maybe 5% or so) that they will not. If somehow they pull through this mess without going bankrupt, whoever buys and holds the stock now will make a lot of money. That's why their stock is not worthless. When people refer to "volatility traders", they are referring to options traders.


    For this same reason, you can buy 50% out-of-the-money June 2009 call options on the S&P 500 index, for instance. There is a small, but non-zero chance that you will make money.

     Reply
    Hello Mister Walrus was starred Hello Mister Walrus was unstarred
    Image of sample032 sample032
    04/22/09

    @Hello Mister Walrus: @Hello Mister Walrus: Wouldn't that make GM bonds essentially call options for bankruptcy? If GM goes bankrupt, the bonds are worthless. If it survives, the bonds will keep yielding.
     Reply
    sample032 was starred sample032 was unstarred
    Image of friend_of_a_friend friend_of_a_friend
    04/22/09

    @Hello Mister Walrus: No shit. Owen shouldn't quit his day job any time soon.
     Reply
    friend_of_a_friend was starred friend_of_a_friend was unstarred
    Image of Hello Mister Walrus Hello Mister Walrus
    04/22/09

    @sample032: It applies to both debt and equity. GM bonds and GM stocks will both gain if GM does not go bankrupt. There is just more downside to the equity. In a liquidation, bond holders will probably get paid some portion of what they are owed (until the liquidation proceeds run out). However, liquidation is unlikely for GM - there is no way the government will allow it. Instead, there will likely be some sort of "restructuring" which they might or might not call bankruptcy. Again, the bondholders will not lose 100%, but equity holders will be wiped out.
     Reply
    Hello Mister Walrus was starred Hello Mister Walrus was unstarred
    Image of engineerd engineerd
    04/22/09

    In reply to Why GM's Still Worth Something
    GM hasn't been worth anything as far as stocks/equity goes for a long time. The company owes more than it makes, meaning it has negative equity. The bondholders are in control of the company, not the stockholders.


    Therefore, my theory is that the people who are buying stock are the Max Mosley's to GM's dominant bondholders in this drama.


     Reply
    engineerd was starred engineerd was unstarred
    Image of Das ASHloch (achtundsiebzig) Das ASHloch (achtundsiebzig)
    04/22/09

    In reply to Why GM's Still Worth Something
    There's always selling the workforce into Eastern European slavery. I don't have time to run a discounted cash flow of the labor value for building AK-47s and fake Tag Heuer watches, but sure it's enough to give common shareholders something.
     Reply
    Das ASHloch (achtundsiebzig) was starred Das ASHloch (achtundsiebzig) was unstarred
    Image of MisterBoomBoom MisterBoomBoom
    04/22/09

    In reply to Why GM's Still Worth Something
    Sad to see the company go down. Don't fret - they'll be back in a stronger way, and I'm sure we'll see lots of new American players in the auto industry over the next couple years. If there's a hole, there's some entrepreneur out there that might fill it :)
     Reply
    MisterBoomBoom was starred MisterBoomBoom was unstarred
    Image of Hello Mister Walrus Hello Mister Walrus
    04/22/09

    @MisterBoomBoom: It's weird with the auto industry because you need huge economies of scale to be competitive. That's why the same companies have been around for decades, or close to a century in some cases.


    You're right - GM will be around for a while, albeit with a much smaller market share than it currently has. However, I would not expect many new American auto companies - the barriers to entry are just tremendous. You would need like a billion dollars of startup money to get going.


    The only business model that has been remotely successful has been to develop high-end niche vehicles like Tesla, Fisker, or Salleen. It's still safe to assume that we will be driving the same make of cars that are parents did, and their parents...

     Reply
    Hello Mister Walrus was starred Hello Mister Walrus was unstarred
    Image of mikedrawcar mikedrawcar
    04/22/09

    @Hello Mister Walrus: if you want to produce a mass-market vehicle, it costs two billion dollars to tool up. That's JUST tooling up, and doing so in a factory that's already been built, with a workforce in place.

    That doesn't account for design, engineering, procurement, financing, legal, safety, relationships with suppliers, etc., etc.

    So it's pretty much impossible to start a new car company with the idea of competing against any of the top 40 manufacturers in the world.
     Reply
    mikedrawcar was starred mikedrawcar was unstarred
    Image of Hello Mister Walrus Hello Mister Walrus
    04/22/09

    @MisterBoomBoom: Actually, I'd like to modify that statement. Within our lifetimes, we're going to see Chinese (and maybe Indian) cars in the US.
     Reply
    Hello Mister Walrus was starred Hello Mister Walrus was unstarred
    Image of DoctorNine DoctorNine
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    So I see they've hired Carolyn Kennedy onto the writing staff. Isn't that one of the signs of the Apocalypse? I get confused between those and that plague of hemorrhoids thing with Moses.
     Reply
    DoctorNine was starred DoctorNine was unstarred
    Image of dcoe18 dcoe18
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    It took getting an MBA in finance and management to help me realize how much I loathe finance and management. I worried about the money I was loosing by not being invested, but not enough to get me interested in investing. Consequently, I was not invested when the market crashed. I am intact. My strategy beat out all the strategies of all my asshole classmates in the MBA program. Who's the genius now?
     Reply
    dcoe18 was starred dcoe18 was unstarred
    Image of pantsonfireliarliar pantsonfireliarliar
    02/17/09

    @dcoe18: The genius would be the person who went all cash back in August.
     Reply
    pantsonfireliarliar was starred pantsonfireliarliar was unstarred
    Image of everfade everfade
    02/17/09

    @dcoe18: I see the MBA couldn't help you when it came to losing/loosing. hehehe
     Reply
    everfade was starred everfade was unstarred
    Image of ADismalScience ADismalScience
    02/17/09

    @pantsonfireliarliar:


    Or shorted.

     Reply
    ADismalScience was starred ADismalScience was unstarred
    Image of GuyBitchy GuyBitchy
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    (Love the gal in red.)


    Look, what can they say? No one told them this kind of stuff could happen.


    And, basically, all they do for a living is repeat what they've been told.

     Reply
    GuyBitchy was starred GuyBitchy was unstarred
    Image of Grim Reaper of the Forest Grim Reaper of the Forest
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    Can we kill the 24 hour news cycle?
     Reply
    Grim Reaper of the Forest was starred Grim Reaper of the Forest was unstarred
    Image of Colonel Mustard Colonel Mustard
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    I'm sure that if I knew what "money" was I'd probably be shitting myself over this news too.
     Reply
    Colonel Mustard was starred Colonel Mustard was unstarred
    Image of ♥AntiSocialSocialite♥ ♥AntiSocialSocialite♥
    02/17/09

    In reply to CNBC Anchors Totally Speechless Over Market Crash
    there are weaponized hallucinogens released on the floor and in newsrooms for every 50 points the market plummets - didn't you know???
     Reply
    ♥AntiSocialSocialite♥ was starred ♥AntiSocialSocialite♥ was unstarred
    Image of gladys_kravitz gladys_kravitz
    02/16/09

    In reply to New York Magazine's Happiest Editorblogger
    Wait, blogs are the future?
     Reply
    gladys_kravitz was starred gladys_kravitz was unstarred
    Image of Seeräuber Jenny Seeräuber Jenny
    01/14/09

    In reply to The Fall of the Almost-Rich
    L'enfer c'est New York Magazine.
     Reply
    Seeräuber Jenny was starred Seeräuber Jenny was unstarred
    Image of Tremonius Tremonius
    01/14/09

    In reply to The Fall of the Almost-Rich
    My Daddy used to say, "Wonder what the poor folk are doin' today." There's your niche market.
     Reply
    Tremonius was starred Tremonius was unstarred
    Image of PictureItSicily PictureItSicily
    01/14/09

    In reply to The Fall of the Almost-Rich
    This is interesting coming from a blog where 26% of readers have an income above $100k. I just learned that yesterday! Anyway, don't be too hard on New York mag readers. I suspect there's more than a little bit of overlap.
     Reply
    PictureItSicily was starred PictureItSicily was unstarred
    Image of Puss_In_Boots Puss_In_Boots
    01/14/09

    @PictureItSicily: 26% of Gawker readers have incomes over $100,000? Wow...I'm surprised you let my poor ass post here at all.


    (Anyone want to help a sister out?)

     Reply
    Puss_In_Boots was starred Puss_In_Boots was unstarred
    Image of mmstk101 mmstk101
    01/14/09

    @Puss_In_Boots: Hah! Me too! I'm definitely part of the 74% majority.
     Reply
    mmstk101 was starred mmstk101 was unstarred
    Image of dado dado
    01/14/09

    In reply to The Fall of the Almost-Rich
    I stopped reading it when they got rid of the role-play ads.
     Reply
    dado was starred dado was unstarred
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