When an incumbent runs for reelection, it all comes down to whether or not people think he's doing a good job, not a normal comparison between two candidates. Love him or hate him, Mike Bloomberg is sweeping toward a third term not because of his heavy spending or his weak opponent, as the credulous local press thinks, but because his job approval rating is 60%. New Jersey proves the same rule from the opposite direction: Gov. Jon Corzine's approval is about 35%, so even in a heavily Democratic state, he'll be lucky to scrape by. And! There's a Virginia governor's race, a special election for Congress upstate, big mayors' races in Boston, Detroit, Miami, Houston, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Atlanta, and gay marriage is on the ballot in Maine and Washington.

Yes, Bloomberg's spending wildly. He's hired half the city's Democratic consultants just to tie them down, robo-calling everyone who still has a land line, stuffing your mailbox, and taking out redonkulous ads like one in the Jerusalem Post edition that comes with the Sunday NY Post. His consultants have a vested interest in convincing a very rich man to spend a lot of money he won't miss. But they can't take credit for making the sun rise.

And sure, Bill Thompson's a weak opponent. He explains why NYC's Dems, despite a 4-1 voter registration advantage, incredibly haven't elected a mayor since the 1980s. As a fixture in local politics for the last few decades, one suspects that if Thompson had any stirring leadership qualities we would have seen them by now. He's made Bloomberg's override of term limits the center of his campaign. But the sad reality is people care more about quality of life than the niceties of the political process. If they like the incumbent, they don't even look at the challenger, those are the rules. You can't beat someone the voters don't want to fire.

But if you're an incumbent who the voters do want to fire, like poor Gov. Corzine with his 58% disapproval rating, is all lost? Well, you still have one option: disqualify your opponent. Making voters hate him even more than they hate you. Which explains the relentless, ungracious ads attacking Republican Chris Christie. Driving up Christie's negative ratings — together with the Democrats' strong edge in New Jersey, and the presence of independent candidate Chris Daggett to drain the anti-incumbent vote (as well as the all-important Chris vote) — is what has Corzine clinging to life. But that doesn't mean he'll pull through.

Join me below in the comments as the returns come in.

UPDATE, 11:30: Tonight's 49%-45% loss for New Jersey's Democratic governor Jon Corzine to Republican Chris Christie is a blow to Barack Obama, as is the 18-point victory in Virginia for Republican Robert McDonnell over Democrat Creigh Deeds.

But the President's biggest headache is likely to be blowback from the narrower-than-expected victory of Michael Bloomberg, edging Bill Thompson by just under five points, 51%-46%, after Obama gave Thompson only the most grudging of endorsements and declined to invest any political capital in the race. Democrats are going to look at this near-miss with anger, and at a time when Obama is already under fire from Democrats for falling short of last year's promised changes, and losing ground to Republicans in NJ and Virginia, he's likely to bear the brunt of the recriminations.

Those (like me, above in this post) who derided Mayor Bloomberg's huge spending as excessive now look a little silly: Just as JFK's father infamously forbade his son from buying one more vote than necessary — "I'll be damned if I'll pay for a landslide" — Bloomberg's $100 million campaign now looks to be a model of efficiency. (On the other hand, the heavy spending may have turned voters off.)

For the President, and liberals, the special election in upstate NY is one bright spot. Democrat Bill Owens is holding a reliable lead of 49%-45% over Conservative Doug Hoffman after Republican Dede Scozzafava withdrew, with 84% of the vote counted.

In Maine, supporters of gay marriage are narrowly behind, 48%-52%, with 76% of the vote in (with a number of Portland votes yet to be counted). But gay marriage holds a narrow, 52%-48% lead in Washington State, with 42% of precincts reporting.

Updating our previous map, it is now inevitable that Barack Obama, noted author, law professor, community organizer, state Senator, convention keynoter, and US Senator, will be the 44th President of the United States, with a minimum of 284 electoral votes.

Go wild kids!!!

CNN makes their call

So does Fox

Stay tuned - no bad news for Obama in here yet. Chief Obama strategist Axelrod says the only thing giving him heartburn is that he can't figure out what should be giving him heartburn.

7 p.m.
The first polls will close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Raw numbers will trickle in slowly, and the networks, burned in 2000 by their too-early Florida call, will resist the urge to tell viewers what they know.

But watch those Indiana numbers. If Indiana — which, like Virginia, hasn't voted Democratic for president since 1964 — looks like it's going Obama's way, the suspense is over and I'll be ready to call it then. Results will start to come in at 7, but the networks will certainly hold off until 8pm, though, because the northeastern section of the state, near Gary, is close to Chicago and a certain Obama stronghold - turnout size being the key factor.

By now, McCain's lead in Indiana is a narrow 1.4 point; two recent polls have it tied. Virginia looks strong for Obama — he's at 50 in three of four fresh polls, and Vermont is solid blue; the other 7pm states should be solid red. The count when those states come in: McCain 42 electoral votes, Obama 16. Not to worry.

7:30 p.m.
Polls close in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia. WV should be red; Obama holds a slight lead in Ohio and trails very slightly in North Carolina, but these are states it's almost impossible for a Republican to win without. If these results follow expectations, the count is now McCain 62, Obama 36. Don't panic — it's not shaping up to be a good night for McCain.

8 p.m.
Another 15 states plus DC close their polls. Of greatest interest will be Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. PA is a blue state by most lights. McCain has been targeting it, mainly to make up for his expected trouble in Virginia and North Carolina, but it's a Hail Mary pass: Obama has a healthy lead and is over 50 percent. McCain's better hope is Florida, where Obama leads but is below 50. Once these states are called, with Missouri going red and New Hampshire blue as polls now show, Obama has caught up, 136-133. Time for a reality check — we know how most of the others are going to come in. Big states like New York, California, the upper Midwest (MI, WI and MN) are blue; Texas, the remaining southern states and the inland west are red. If you add the 8pm states to the known slam-dunks, and the numbers come in as I've suggested, Obama now has 285 electoral votes and will be the next president.

9 p.m.
Still in doubt: only Iowa (likely Obama), Colorado (ditto), New Mexico and Nevada (true toss-ups). If Obama has underperformed these predictions (by losing New Hampshire, Ohio or Pennsylvania), he'll likely need all of them. CO and NM polls close at 9pm eastern; when Iowa and Nevada close at 10, all swing states will be closed. The networks probably won't call it until the polls have closed in states giving Obama the full 270 he needs. When will that come?

At 8:30, Arkansas will come in for McCain, and at 9 another 14 states (including New York, Texas, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin) close their polls. Only two of those, New Mexico and Colorado, will be in doubt, and the count will show a slight lead for Obama — 208 to 206 — if the predictions here hold. This will be an anxious hour if the election is close: only four more states come in at 10, two solid McCain (Montana and Utah) and two that may be slow to call (Iowa and Nevada). McCain pulls ahead, 214-208.

11 p.m.
So the nets will probably hold off till 11. At that hour, every state but Alaska will be in, including the solid blue West Coast. Even if the last four swing states — Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada — are still in doubt (and Alaska likely for McCain), Obama has hit his magic number in states the networks will probably call very quickly, leading McCain 285-224. Expect speeches, hoopla, and (shortly thereafter) transformative change to the body politic.