Folks here don't seem to understand financial markets. Short sellers get unfairly scapegoated when in fact studies have suggested that they serve a useful function by aiding price discovery and market liquidity. The bans on short selling of financial shares didn't stop them from falling and are widely understood to have been empty political gestures.
And a big weakness of the housing market that many have pointed out is that it's very difficult to be a short seller, so prices tend to ratchet up unless there's an outright crash. John Paulson and others discovered a way to indirectly short housing by buying credit default swaps, and a public exchange has been proposed for CDSs to aid market transparency: if everyone could have seen that people were buying CDSs on subprime debt, that would have signaled trouble much sooner.
And this story just reminds us that all that "lost" money went somewhere, to short sellers, to folks who were smart enough to sell property at the right time, etc. That is probably not going into Icelandic government bonds. It'd be interesting to trace the money flows during a crisis like this and analyze the real costs/benefits to the economy overall.
No one is worth that kind of money. No one is irreplacable, not even these guys who think they are so invaluable (then why are they in the current situation..). The crazy salaries/bonuses are justified by saying it's necessary to attact the top talent. Well obviously the top talent isn't so talented and this is just a way to pad everyone's bank account. I hope this stops, it sickens me.
All aspects of Paulson & Co. are private - Hedge Funds are not eligible for TARP funds or any form of taxpayer assistance. Even the most famous Hedge Fund bailout in history, LTCM, was privately funded (though publicly coordinated).
@ADismalScience: Was not referring to Paulson specifically, just the fact that risk seems to be assymetrical in the current environs. As far as slinging slogans, if you have to spend money to make money that means when the rubber meets the road we'll be cooking with gas, as long as we are on the same sheet of music. You want a friend? Buy a dog. I am now going to go big, and go home, because if you are too big for the little trades, you're too little for the big trades. Be a hitter, not a chump, buy these bonds, gotta jump.
The ironic thing about Paulson is that his firm does "merger arbitrage". The subprime/real estate bet he made was totally outside his field, and that's what he made the lion's share of his money on in 2007.
@depardoo: Where do you get your info? His two biggest winners in 2007 were Paulson Credit Opportunities and Credit Opportunities II which, presumably, made their money on credit shorts.
"And to the victor go the spoils." Nice if it wasn't just the flipside of what got us here in the first place--highly leveraged bets with other people's money. If Paulson had been wrong we might be bailing him out a la Long Term Capital Management. These returns sound great until you look around at our economy today and see the mess they leave behind.
To the victor go the spoils and everyone else foots the bill for the losers. These kind of returns are only possible with incredibly risky leveraged speculative investing that can't sustain downside losses. And we all end up paying for it.
Not necessarily! I understand the point you're making, but it's a common misconception that all these products are levered into oblivion. Many hedge funds don't borrow for anything but basic cashflow management.
Paulson made a ridiculous amount of money for Paulson & Co.'s investors in 2008, and to the victor go the spoils. Keep in mind, he's independent and lives/dies on his privately-held corporation's profitability in investments - if one of his company's funds ever takes a step below watermark he earns little. My only confusion with the man is why he's still in the game.
And good news! Paulson & Co. launched a "Recovery Fund" in October as we muck through the depths of this whole miserable recession - and if this guy believes in capitalism roaring back, you should too. Because he's smarter and richer than you are.
@ADismalScience: Wasn't Paulson just mentioned this week as one of the companies ready to lend a helping hand by buying up the smoking remains of Indymac at fire sale prices?
@ADismalScience: It wasn't a personal sleight, Dismal. Shall we agree that there are different types of investors? I'm more concerned about the kind that destroy companies and economies to allow them to buy them cheaply.
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03/13/09
If all else fails, he can do his wall.
01/09/09
01/09/09
And a big weakness of the housing market that many have pointed out is that it's very difficult to be a short seller, so prices tend to ratchet up unless there's an outright crash. John Paulson and others discovered a way to indirectly short housing by buying credit default swaps, and a public exchange has been proposed for CDSs to aid market transparency: if everyone could have seen that people were buying CDSs on subprime debt, that would have signaled trouble much sooner.
And this story just reminds us that all that "lost" money went somewhere, to short sellers, to folks who were smart enough to sell property at the right time, etc. That is probably not going into Icelandic government bonds. It'd be interesting to trace the money flows during a crisis like this and analyze the real costs/benefits to the economy overall.
01/09/09
01/09/09
No one is worth that kind of money. No one is irreplacable
I disagree. Now what do we do, have a rock-paper-scissors contest? Argue with falsifiable information, not boring platitudes.
01/09/09
01/09/09
All aspects of Paulson & Co. are private - Hedge Funds are not eligible for TARP funds or any form of taxpayer assistance. Even the most famous Hedge Fund bailout in history, LTCM, was privately funded (though publicly coordinated).
Keep slinging that slogan around, though!
01/09/09
01/09/09
01/09/09
I've met him. He has the personality of a turd.
01/09/09
01/09/09
My information was from a host of WSJ articles last year. But his main business is described as merger arbitrage.
01/09/09
01/09/09
Personality has nothing to do with it. A mere observation. I think he is a very smart guy.
01/09/09
To the victor go the spoils and everyone else foots the bill for the losers. These kind of returns are only possible with incredibly risky leveraged speculative investing that can't sustain downside losses. And we all end up paying for it.
Paulson's no genius. He just got lucky this time.
01/09/09
What makes you think Paulson used leverage?
He has capital banging down his doors.
01/09/09
01/09/09
Not necessarily! I understand the point you're making, but it's a common misconception that all these products are levered into oblivion. Many hedge funds don't borrow for anything but basic cashflow management.
01/09/09
01/09/09
01/09/09
And good news! Paulson & Co. launched a "Recovery Fund" in October as we muck through the depths of this whole miserable recession - and if this guy believes in capitalism roaring back, you should too. Because he's smarter and richer than you are.
01/09/09
Check out his buddy Paolo: Yee-haw!
[online.wsj.com]
Wouldn't it be fun to see a shaky Greenspan trying to slice the garlic with a razorblade at Club Fed?
01/09/09
Paulson's not alone, everyone is really excited for the coming distressed debt boom.
01/09/09
01/09/09
What's so slimy about investing? I don't come to your job and get all self-righteous.
01/09/09