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New York, 8:56 PM
Sun Nov 8
10 posts in the last 24 hours
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11/04/09
11/04/09
I'm not really clear on why the news media is conveniently ignoring this fact. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
Things, particularly politics, can be complicated, and it's not helpful to understanding an election to reduce it to a single narrative.
It's definitely true that both dem candidates in NJ and VA sucked.
And that (ergo / e.g.) in VA Deeds pretty much failed to turn out the Obama coalition, specifically young people and African Americans.
And it's definitely true that both elections (particularly NJ) focused on local issues.
However -- and I can speak with more specific knowledge to VA than NJ -- "national" issues like big government, tea bagging, etc also came into play.
Obama has definitely lost ground with indp voters. (Rightly or wrongly. I personally think wrongly / unfairly but it's still a problem.)
My bottom line is that while it would have been nice to win NJ and VA gov, we're talking about shitty candidates who deserved to lose. I have more sympathy for Deeds than for Corzine (former Goldman CEO who was on ok senator but a craptastic gov), but they both ran terrible campaigns.
And my hope is that these losses will serve as a wake-up call for 2010, both for the DNC/DCCC/DSCC and (more importantly) for we "grass roots" and the "Obama coalition" overall. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
One note about the independent voters: the number of people identifying as independent has boomed in part because of disaffected GOPers joining their ranks. It seems like at least some of the independent shift to the right is coming from these voters, many of whom were still identifying as Republican prior to the '08 election.
It's difficult to compare the level of independent voter support from then to now when the population of independent voters is increasing and the ID of "independent" is not affiliated with any specific political viewpoint. The strategists are going to have to get to work on the problem, since there are now more independents than either Democrats or Republicans. #barackobama
11/04/09
[www.cbsnews.com] #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/04/09
The Newark Star Ledger had a picture of a Hoboken Condo (where the Gov lives???) with a banner draping virtually the entire building with the tag line of "Column A All the Way"
Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Camden, etc. counties traditionally vote for democrats. They did so last night. Essex and Hudson were 68% Corzine.
Union shocked most people when it went 51% Corzine and 43% Christie. Union was expected to have a 30 point gap. Similarly, Bergen, the most populous county, was about 50/50.
Yes property tax was the main issue. However, many voters saw Gov Corzine's progressive policies as the source of the skyrocketing rates. [I got it, most ppty tax is municipal, not state]. For example, the NJ legislative budget office put a $20,000,0000,000 price tag on his COAH initiative.
His inability / unwillingness to address the key issues of his 2004 election also sealed his fate. 1) Did not bring transparency. He actually went to the NJ Supreme Court to shield his email to his ex-girlfriend labor leader. 2) He failed to rein in corruption. Instead, he (and his foundations) contributed to organizations and/or campaigns managed by many of the indicted. 3) He did nothing for property tax. Hew was seen as the person who piled on more programs. Before responding, I am not judging the merits of his programs -- many I support.
It was his arrogance that alienated many democratic voters. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/04/09
It seems to me all they wanted was Obama's endorsement in order to ride it out like a networked business card at an interview, but do none of the work themselves to actually get in office. It was lazy. They used the teacher's pass to goof off in the halls. Pitiful, if you ask me and the end result was deserved. So I attribute none of this to Obama's name power, as it were, if the candidates don't want to actually work for the position.
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/04/09
I don't know much about the VA election, but the Northeast elections had little to nothing to do with Obama and a lot to do with people not being happy with what they had. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
But, you know, I always like your debate, Momchick. Where the hell is Chillbear in all this? Your team is looking a little lite these days. #barackobama
11/04/09
I have to quibble with you that the "I'm no Bush" strategy was last used with Kerry. While I agree that BO didn't use it (until he got into office and blamed all of our current situation on Dubya, who was a big, dumb cowboy), many liberal Senators and Congressman used that strategy against their Republican opponents to get into office last year.
I think that last night's results in NJ and Va isn't a referendum on Obama, but rather it reflects the nervousness of independents regarding the expensive sweeping changes Obama, Pelosi and Reid are proposing.
I will be curious to see how the Blue Dogs vote on Cap and Trade and health care after last night's results. I think only then will be fully grasp the results of Dem gubernatorial losses. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/04/09
11/03/09
What WAS the issue is that she's in favor of card check (taking the secret ballot away from union members), repeatedly voted for higher taxes, supports much of the Obama agenda and just doesn't hold any known Republican views.
Why she even ran as a Republican is a mystery. #campaigns
11/02/09
And he's definitely going to lose, probably by ten possibly be 15-20 points.
However it's not correct to say the VA election is an entirely local affair.
I think frankly even a great Dem candidate -- which Terry McAuliffe btw would NOT have been -- would probably have lost this election. Although it would have been much closer than tmw will be.
The reality is that Obama's presidency is not playing well in large parts of the country. I don't think this is necessarily fair but 1) the FoxNews effect is real everywhere outside major metropolitan areas; and 2) Fox aside, there is real populist anger about the Wall St bailout etc.
I'm hoping BO can have some success in the coming months with health care and taking control of the "big government" meme. And somehow at least proximately resolve the Afghanistan question.
And my (possibly optimistic suspicion) is that he's not really going to start worrying about positioning and political messaging for midterm elections until spring -- so he's if not happy then ok w/ looking a little unraveled at the moment.
NJ is clearly its own beast, but even that election I don't think is entirely "local."
And VA is maybe 30-40% local, but 60-70% a referendum on Obama in a state he won in '08 that is not going well. #campaigns
11/02/09
11/02/09
I am ready to hammer the answering machine. Yes, this olds still owns a land line. #campaigns
11/02/09
He only has an 11 in Charisma and a 12 in Intelligence and Wisdom. I don't care if he has Darkvision to 60'; if my City Councilperson can't successfully score a critical hit on the big resolutions then I don't want him representing me.
Either on the council or in my raiding party. #campaigns
11/02/09
I'm getting tired of working around all these Judeo-Christians 24/7! #campaigns
11/02/09