The scorched earth style of opposition does indeed work at dragging down Obama and the Democrats' numbers. But it also keeps approval of Republicans down, and "generic Republicans" still do not poll better than Democrats. They're probably poised to pick up 15 to 25 House seats next year, especially if Democrats again don't bother to get the youth vote out and if the "recovery" continues to be jobless. But the Republican were also supposed to hold on to an upstate New York district they've represented for 150 years, until the tea parties, Sarah Palin, and the Club for Growth got involved.

Maybe the excommunication of moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava was an aberration, and the grownups will rein in the activists and run electable Chris Christie types. But if they do, the disgruntled anti-authoritarian Glenn Beck acolytes will rebel.

Already, the Club for Growth—which threw a lot of money at NY-23 and in doing so gave the seat to the Democrats—has endorsed Marco Rubio for Senate in Florida. Rubio is the conservative challenging popular moderate governor Charlie Crist. As governor, Crist enjoys approval ratings in the high 60s among Democrats, independents, and Republicans. But Marco Rubio enjoys the support of George Will, The National Review, and the aforementioned very wealthy Club for Growth.

Rubio is, at the moment, polling below the likely Democratic nominee, which is a feat, because no one knows who the Democratic nominee is, as a race against Crist was not expected to be winnable.

Meanwhile, out in broken California, the Republicans have decided to launch a real challenge to Senator Barbara Boxer for the first time since she took office. With Boxer facing rising unfavorable numbers, former Hewlett-Packard executive McCain campaign insider Carly Fiorina decided to throw her hat in the ring. Fiorina has a lot of money, good name recognition, and might appeal to moderates and women who are tired of Boxer. So, of course, True Conservatives are beginning to rally behind a crazy man named Chuck DeVore, an Assemblyman who is currently tied with Fiorina in the polls.

What sort of Republican is this DeVore character? Let's look at something he wrote last week in an Amazon review.

American Progressives and European fascist theorists admired each other and exchanged ideas. From William James to Georges Sorel, from eugenics to the militarization of society ("War on Poverty" anyone? It was William James who penned the "Moral Equivalent of War" in 1906), both the American left and European fascists sought to remake society using crises to urge action to justify bigger government at the expense of individual liberty.

Ronald Reagan had it right in 1981, when he remarked that Roosevelt's New Deal had much in common with Mussolini's fascism, including frequent words of praise from Roosevelt's brain trust directed towards Italy in the 1930s.

Good luck becoming a Senator from California, sir!

This is all sort of like if Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy had been to run clones of himself in all 50 states, instead of diverting money to Democrats who actually had chances to win. So there are basically two end games:

• Republican infighting leads to unelectable candidates losing what should've been easy pickups across the board.
• Apocalyptic death cult masquerading as Republican party makes the usual midterm gains, Congress promptly shuts down federal government again, Obama impeached for lying under oath about where he was born.

It's a good thing none of the tangible benefits of health care reform are scheduled to go into effect until 2013! Otherwise the Death Panel lines would be unbearable come 2011.

After the announcement of today's new game show, it became apparent that NBC is destined to find the cheapest programming possible and is no longer concerned about how many viewers it can attract or making those expensive and pesky scripted shows. The future for the once-mighty station is much like that in Terminator, but before John Conner can return to the past to prevent the machines from taking over. There will be many more sad headlines out of NBC in years to come. A sample:

December 12, 2009: NBC Announces Plans to Phase Out All Scripted Programming by 2014

September 25, 2010:Heroes Promises It Will Actually, Finally Be Good This Season

October 12, 2010: The CW Surpasses NBC in Total Viewers

July 30, 2011: Jenna Bush and Kathie Lee Gifford to Host Today: Primetime

August 10, 2011: 24 Hour Fitness' Biggest Loser Nutrisystem Hour Brought To You By Cheerios Announces Lowest Series Finale in History

April 4, 2012: Original Must-See TV Lineup Returns to NBC—As Reruns

June 18, 2012: NBC Loses Last Scripted Show, 30 Rock, to the Hallmark Channel

August 4, 2012: More Americans Travel to London to Watch Olympic Games in Person Than Watch on NBC

January 23, 2013: After Jay Leno's Fatal On-Set Heart Attack, Dane Cook Prepares to Fill Nightly Hosting Duties

September 14, 2014: Saturday Night Live Attracts 200,000 Viewers, Highest Total in Three Seasons

December 12, 2014: FCC Announces It Will Finally Put an End to National Embarrassment of NBC

These days, just about any celeb can get a book deal, but if they really want to get on Oprah and sell millions of copies, they need to come up with some sort of attention grabbing scandal that will catapult their tome up the best-sellers lists. It started innocently enough, in 1992, former Greg Brady, Barry Williams, wrote in his book Growing Up Brady that he had relationships with both is on-screen mother and sister. In 2003 Anne Heche's Call Me Crazy alleged sexual abuse as well as communicating with aliens. There aren't many other places to go after that. Last year John Lennon: The Life upped the ante by claiming that the Beatle not only had a gay relationship with Paul McCartney, but was also in love with his mother.

As the literary one-upsmanship continues from fake incest to aliens to real incest and gay relationships, the famous are going to have to dig deep to find accusations that will actually shock us into buying their sorry books.

• 2010: A new book about Elizabeth Taylor says that her secret to longevity is because she practiced Satanism at an altar in her basement. She also served as the inspiration for both Rosemary's Baby and Angel Heart.
• 2014: After his lover performing partner Roy's death, Siegfried Fischbacher writes a book about their life together and alleges that the only comfort Roy could find after his tiger mauling accident came when he started having sex with tigers. But only female tigers, because they are definitely not gay.
• 2017: Michael Phelps appears on the final season of Oprah to talk about his new book. He admits that during the Olympics he was on hormones, not because he needed extra speed, but because he's really a woman.
• 2020: Jennifer Aniston is finally ready to open up about her marriage to John Mayer, who wasn't really a human at all, but a shape shifting demon that she summoned through witchcraft and virgin sacrifice to kill Angelina Jolie. She fell in love with him instead. Mayer has no comment, but returns to the pits of Hades from whence he came.
• 2023: Lauren Conrad writes about her slide from fame into obscurity and how the loss of self-esteem lead her to make some odd career choices. She became a mid-priced hooker and drug trafficker that also ran a ring of very, very cruel puppy farms. Still, no one really cares.
• 2029: Suri Cruise finally pens a book saying that her mother married her father to become more famous and that her father often trapped them in the house for long stretches of time, not letting them talk to outsiders. She also says that they were involved in a cult with its own uniforms and crazy languages and that it kept her father from expressing his homosexual desires. It also eventually stole all of his money. Come on. Who's going to believe that?

As the memorials appear, Dash's legend is growing. The Independent calls him "the mythical hero of an artistic underworld." The Guardian says he was a "mythical figurehead," and compares him to James Dean, Jimi Hendrix, and Sylvia Plath. Vulture spoke to Dash's art dealer:

"I wouldn't say he didn't love living, but living for him was difficult," says Peres, who adds that to his knowledge Snow was alone at the Lafayette House, a hotel in Lower Manhattan, on Monday night. "To simply say he overdosed on drugs is insufficient, because it wasn't that simple. He died and there were drugs involved. He was complex and astute. He was very sensitive. Although he was only 27, he felt the pain of someone who'd lived a long life."

Terrence Koh is dedicating tonight's four-hour performance art piece, in which he "lies on the floor in a shirt made from crushed pearls, his face and feet covered in powder," to Dash.

Koh will change his tune to "Cheree" by the synth-punk band Suicide. As Koh explained in an e-mail message, "It is for one of my best friend's Dash and that is our favorite song together and we used to dance to it together."

Vice co-founder Gavin McInnes says Dash changed his life:

When I used to run around with a camera and a notepad following Irak and documenting as much of their lives as I could, he said something that changed my life forever. He said, "Why are you always reporting on shit and reviewing other people's shit? Why don't you do your own shit?" I couldn't get it out of my head. I still can't. And you shouldn't either.

There's no denying that dying young—while always a tragedy—can do wonders for an artist's legacy. Dash Snow was not the artist that Basquiat was, but their stories do have some strong parallels: graffiti writers who moved into the gallery world, were dismissed as clowns and lightweights, and died drug-related deaths in their 20s. Today, Basquiat is regarded as a major artist of his era, and his cool factor is untarnished; his contemporary Julian Schnabel, who was right there with him, didn't die from drugs, and today is regarded as a bit of a sellout, directing Hollywood films and pouring his time into huge pink apartment buildings for the rich in Manhattan.

Dash Snow was, in fact, more famed and respected for his lifestyle than for his works of art. But death can change that. His don't-give-a-fuck attitude now has a tragic ending; but his art—which ranged from legitimately good but not brilliant to outright corny (in my worthless opinion)—will now begin to be re-evaluated in light of his newfound status a martyr to the fast life. In ten or twenty years, who knows? Condemnations of Dash Snow as a hipster fuck-off are bound to fade away, leaving only the picture of the soul of an artist. That's how legends—and fortunes—get made in the art world.
[Pic: Maayanpearl's Flickr, Peres Projects]

Sad Republican strategist Mark McKinnon has been handicapping the Republican field over at The Daily Beast. So far, he's identified both Senator John Ensign and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford as Ones to Watch just days before they admitted extramarital affairs. And then he called on both of them to resign. It is hard, strategizing for this bunch of losers! So let's look at the rest of his list and wonder what will be!

Haley Barbour: Barbour is McKinnon's new favorite, because he is the opposite of Barack Obama. He is a fat old white Southerner who used to be a lobbyist. So, as you can imagine, he will definitely help with that whole "GOP is only the party of old white Southerners now" thing. But McKinnon is pretty sure that the next election will actually be held on opposite day, which will definitely improve Haley's chances.

But there is a problem: he is a crooked lobbyist with crooked lobbyist children!

Tim Pawlenty: Tim is the Governor of Minnesota. He is a charming cipher. He is completely inoffensive. He would maybe convince Republicans that they could put some more upper midwestern states back in play.

But there is a problem: even being a charming cipher was not enough to net Pawlenty a majority of votes cast in either of the elections he won. And now he is retiring, rather than face possible defeat. Meanwhile, the state has gone completely broke. And he made a bridge collapse. Also he's on the road toward revealing some embarrassing personal secret: claiming he has nothing to hide and almost challenging people to dig something up.

Newt Gingrich: People have heard of him, but they have also forgotten why they used to hate him, mostly. He likes to pretend to be full of exciting new ideas for remaking the party. He is an elder statesman. He, uh, hasn't cheated on his wife lately.

But there is a problem: he's Newt fucking Gingrich.

Mike Huckabee: He's a charming, roly-poly former Arkansas governor with his own talk show on Fox. He used to be fat, then he got skinny, and now he is kinda fat again. He is friends with Chuck Norris. A lot of liberals find him surprisingly tolerable, and he is more than willing to charm them without losing his Conservative Christian Cred. He plays the bass.

But there is a problem: he says a lot of dumb shit and is hard to take seriously, especially now that he's doing his "Conservative White Male Oprah" thing at Fox.

Sarah Palin: She is really famous, and really good at getting on TV, and also she is a lady. She has those kids, and that husband, and a lot of people seem to think she is a wonderful lady. Also she talks funny, which appeals to millions of Americans who also talk funny.

But there is a problem: she is really fucking dumb and no amount of media training can ever make her appear confident and prepared, which is weird, considering her local news background.

Mitt Romney: He has money, and nice hair.

But there is a problem: he is a Mormon!

But that is not actually the best argument for Mitt. The best argument for Mitt is that, barring news that he secretly slept with Joe the Plumber, he basically already has this locked up.

This is how Republican primaries work: if there is a Republican President or Vice President who would like the job, he gets the nomination. If not, the guy who came in second in the last contested primary gets the nomination. (Unless it's Pat Buchanan.) This is the way they have done things since World War II. It means the candidate will be Mitt Romney (or maybe—maybe!—Mike Huckabee). All this John Ensign and Mark Sanford talk was bullshit even before they all took themselves out of the running by sleeping around.

But, you know, good luck to Haley Barbour.

Can't you slackers at Harper Collins do your own blogger book deal sleuthing? Nick's got a full plate as it is people! Geez!

On its FAQ page, the site quotes from Matthew: "But I say unto you, that every idle word that men shall speak, they shall give account thereof in the day of judgment." Amen, brother! The actual author of the site is a hacker and painter named Maciej Ceglowski, who blogs at Idlewords.com. The actual predictions tend to be about the stock market (Dow 50,000, anyone?) or technology (Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer badmouthing the iPhone).

The website is nothing special, just another user-generated content engine. But anything that takes the work out of hoisting pundits by their own petard deserves praise. Bob Metcalfe, a venture capitalist who invented Ethernet, once predicted the failure of the Internet and ate his own words, pulped in a blender, on stage at a conference. At the risk of ending up on Wrong Tomorrow, I'm going to predict that will happen more often.

Krugman leads with a Time cover from ten years ago featuring Most Loathsome Financial Villain runner-up Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and Lawrence Summers with a headline labeling the trio "the committee to save the world" from a then-impending global financial crisis.

How times have changed.

Never mind the fact that two members of the committee have since succumbed to the magazine cover curse, the plunge in reputation that so often follows lionization in the media. (Mr. Summers, now the head of the National Economic Council, is still going strong.) Far more important is the extent to which our claims of financial soundness - claims often invoked as we lectured other countries on the need to change their ways - have proved hollow.

Indeed, these days America is looking like the Bernie Madoff of economies: for many years it was held in respect, even awe, but it turns out to have been a fraud all along.

That was a Time cover. Newsweek covers, like the current one, picture aboved, are totally different.

I mean, the fact that the Hamptons homes of Ron Lauder and Calvin Klein's daughter are both close to being reclaimed by the sea, because of beach erosion, could be taken as a sign that god is having his revenge. Nothing to worry about for us poors, right? But then the New York Times had to go out and talk to some New York economists about the economic future of NYC. Why must you remind us about the future?

—"Some people have compared this recession to the Great Depression. Mr. Marlin's view? It could turn out to be worse." How much worse, Mr. Marlin?

—"I'm concerned about people being so desperate that they lose the fear of losing their own lives and they become so desperate that they're willing to endanger other people's lives," he said.

Nice. Also nobody is shopping at malls any more so forget about your backup career at Foot Locker. Desperately shoveling sand onto a billionaire's beach house foundation is now the last ray of hope, employment-wise. [Pic via]

SPOILER SPOILER SPOILER NATE SILVER SPOILER OF THE OSCARS ALERT.

Slumdog Millionaire wins everything! Well, just Best Director and Best Picture. 99% confident, Nate Silver is! He's also pretty damn sure Heath Ledger is winning best supporting actor, and he has some strong ideas about other awards too, all gleaned through fancy statistical analyses, as is Nate Silver's wont. Read them all in New York magazine and then skip the damn Oscars.

Huh. Perhaps the weight of everyone who paid him $720 for a subscription to his predictions will start pulling down the markets tomorrow. [Previously]

This guy nailed the September 15, 2008 market crash way back in July. Of course, he also attributed it all to a shady Catholic group called Legatus that controls the world, but that's a small matter. Money is money. Now he has identified himself, and he emails us this news:

February 09 2009

100% sure thing

market begins huge downfall

Do not say we didn't warn you. [Previously]

These next gods will, like their predecessors, be people whose professional and private lives, and even personal appearance, are of equal importance to hordes of obsessed nerds. They're people whose creativity and willpower are presumed to steer the course of personal technology, with legions of engineers and programmers and designers and manufacturing experts carrying out their vision. The key is putting themselves out for all the public to behold, with the hopes of becoming revered by apostles who buy anything they unveil. Seeing as we're running low on golden calves, let's check out the current options:

APPLE
Tim Cook
People say Cook is the man who makes the beautiful products turn into a beautiful pile of money, and he actually took over Apple when Jobs was recovering from his first surgery. A southern gentleman, avid cyclist, iron-fisted boss, mysterious loner, emotionless decider—man, Cook is so easy to reduce to two-word stereotypical descriptors, he's bound for godhood. Even his name comes packaged in a suave but unforgettable two syllables. The catch of course is that he can't ascend the mighty throne of Apple until the big cheese retires or bows out due to health. Cook's trod the boards at Stevenotes before, but now he's holding back—or being held back—perhaps because if he becomes big boss, he'll need a fresh start. All eyes not on Steve are on this guy. Can he fill the shoes left open and be the forceful visionary that Jobs is?
Chance of Godhood? 75% with a few variables we'd rather not think about

Phil Schiller
Schiller has helped sell Apple products since forever, but the general impression is that he's best used as a right-hand man, a Boy Wonder to the real Batman. The mullet/beer gut combo probably doesn't do wonders for his public image, either, though "death diving" from 30 feet up like he did back in '99 isn't a bad way to entertain the fanboys. It's easy to forget that Phil used to be involved in product development, including notebooks, and some even credit him for the addition of the iPod's clickwheel. We also hear that the man can kick some ass behind the scenes. He might have what it takes to be the next product don of Apple, but the current hierarchy won't make it easy for him.
Chance of Godhood? 35% assuming the Apple board is thinking like we're thinking

MICROSOFT
Steve Ballmer
The Monkey Man act may work to get attention, to rally your troops and put fear in your enemies, but it's too easy to make fun of in Photoshop. This kind of attention has taken Ballmer pretty far along the road to godhood, but the public doesn't often see the quieter, shrewder Ballmer that we know exists. The key is this: He is not a code nerd, but a Harvard-educated marketing-and-sales guy. Being able to climb inside the mind of the Average Joe, typically oriented around useful features instead of sheer software power, is what Microsoft needs to limit bloat in product design. If Windows 7 is a success, we'll see the Bruce Banner in this Hulk, but if it's not, it'll be "BALLMER SMASH!!!!" and the end of Microsoft.
Chance of Godhood? 85% assuming Windows 7 erases the terrible memory of Vista

Robbie Bach
Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices boss has Xbox, Zune, Media Center and a lot of other potentially tasty toys in his workshop, and he's rumored to be the man who would replace Ballmer. What's most important here? His group accounts for most of the Microsoft products that don't suck. Word is, though, that the limited profitability of his group, today, limits the amount of respect he gets internally. We say the rest of the company should stop and see what he's doing right. He certainly understands the art of the keynote, strutting around and working the crowd with the shoulders-forward energy of a college football coach. He may be too good at sticking to the script, though. His cautious replies may be good for stockholders, but you can't inspire the masses without a little bit o' crazy.
Chance of Godhood? 70%, higher if he is heard matter-of-factly admitting that Windows Mobile sucks

SONY
Sir Howard Stringer
Usually you get the "sir" appended to your name after you live a wild and crazy life in the public eye, but this guy is only more and more in the spotlight each year. When he talks he brings delightful controversy and charisma, but he doesn't do enough with big crowds. How come no gloaty Blu-ray victory dance party? Chilling with Charlie Rose isn't a direct path to divinity, but showing up with Tom Hanks at CES is a start. Still, Sony needs to regain gadget clout, not remind the world that it's a piracy-fearing movie maker. One thing he has done is give the Japanese firm a leader who isn't afraid to lay off when the company is bloated with employees not pulling their weight, unlike traditional Japanese CEOs. And he encourages Japanese employees to work abroad to increase their understanding of the customers of the world. But he's also been working hard to unify the company's software and hardware development not only in each division, but across product groups. Only Apple and Microsoft have done this successfully, but Sony is actually making progress here, behind the scenes.
Chance of Godhood? 45% because it might just be too late for the guy—or for Sony

GOOGLE
Larry Page/Sergey Brin
Never mind that Google keeps more products in beta than it launches or that these two are tech titans already on the web. Their first foray into hardware was received lukewarmly. But Google is here to stay, and no matter what CEO Eric Schmidt does, these two dudes' faces will be the ones people think of. The last 60 years of tech are full of dynamic duos—Woz and Jobs, Hewlett and Packard, etc.—but unless you've got the timing of Martin and Lewis, it's hard to pull off a tandem keynote. It definitely doesn't help when you show up late wearing rollerblades. We just hope that the company can give their Android division the support it needs to compete with the companies full time in the gadget game, because Android is not only disruptive, but it's the ammo that the phone makers need to compete with the all-in-one giants from Redmond and Cupertino.
Chance of Godhood? 60%, could go up if they release more products, or undergo the operation Damon and Kinnear had in Stuck On You

ASUS
Jonney Shih
Netbook-revolutionary Asus is probably the company (companEee?) doing the most with Apple's old mantra, "think different." Their stuff coming out of Taiwan is radical and fun, and Jonney Shih, little known in these parts, is the sole capitano up top. He's not afraid to rock the microphone, but he keeps doing it at other people's events. Asus also makes a lot of notebooks for competitors, and has hardware expertise to spare. But in terms of software, they're still limited by a strong dependence on Windows for their notebooks. As for their weak brand presence in the mainstream: Dude, you got some cash, time to throw bigger parties of your own, and not just ones timed with CES. And take another page from Apple: Learn how to keep products secret until they're finished and shipping.
Chance of Godhood? 40%, more if he finds a good barber and a dealer of fine turtlenecks and presentation sweaters

HTC
Cher Wang
The phone maker who first teamed with Google and launched the T-Mobile G1 is chaired by, yep, a lady! Named Cher! Cher actually got her start selling computer parts for a computer company, and helped found HTC to realize the vision of the true handheld computer. Even if the HTC brand is only a few years old to consumers, HTC has been making phones for other companies for a while: One in every six phones sold in the US this year were from her factories. They'll grow stronger now that Android is here and Windows Mobile is (hopefully) in a period of major improvement, but their branding and design is still a bit on the chunky side. From the looks of her official corporate portrait, she could probably use a queer eye or two—I know I sound like a dick here, but sadly society does judge women more harshly than men on personal appearance. My guess is that as someone who emphasizes being a "devout Christian" in her bio, she'd probably frown on the whole "tech god" thing anyway.
Chance of Godhood? 30% since Cher's probably too busy to take our advice anyway—she also runs the chipmaker VIA

PALM
Ed Colligan
Colligan's generally stormy course at Palm's helm finally reached some smooth waters: He just unveiled Pre, a fresh, attractive take on the smartphone, bolstered by healthy chunks of DNA from Apple and other new smartphone platforms via the talent they aggressively poached. He's proven he has what it takes to make big aggressive changes with this handset, and get the right talent in place, just like Steve Jobs would. And Colligan isn't afraid to make bold brash statements, a requirement of godhood. But can he go all the way? Currently, his problem is with presenting—he's not all that memorable, which might actually be good if you're the guy who introduced the world to the Palm Foleo.
Chance of Godhood? 15% cuz did I mention he believed, not long ago, that Foleo would "redefine how people work"?

Jon Rubinstein
The "executive chairman" to Colligan's "president and CEO," it's hard to tell if Rubinstein is sitting on the throne or next to it. He has our vote. The man in charge of bringing about Palm's would-be salvation, the Pre, previously at Apple led development of the frickin' iPod (maybe you've heard of it), and has actually out Apple'd Apple with the UI in this new handset. And Rubinstein's team is one of the only in the world that is capable of revolutionizing cellphone operating systems. He keeps it cool on stage, reminding us a little of Nintendo's amiable US boss, Reggie Fils-Aime. And his more than passing resemblance to Jeff Goldblum is a plus, too. One limitation in Palm that both Rubinstein and Colligan have to face: Palm will never build an end to end personal tech environment the way Apple and Microsoft can, even if they are on par in terms of making interfaces from the future.
Chance of Godhood? 55%, but sky's the limit if he can shoo Colligan away

AMAZON
Jeff Bezos
Bezos already was a god—a dotcom god. Many of those other former household names are now mercifully forgotten, but Bezos still shows up on magazine covers. He recently heralded in the eradication of DRM from online music retailers to the applause of paying music customers. But what really surprised us, and earned him a place on this list was that he had such a grand vision of what the ebook should be—the replacement of the book—and the funding and drive to make it happen. But he should do more live appearances to drum up more mainstream excitement over software initiatives like the DRM-free MP3 store and video on demand. And he needs to keep Kindles in stock long enough for people to buy them. Most importantly, he's finally learning that tech gods are only as good as their next products. Just because Bezos understands books on a deep level doesn't mean he'll ever be able to do any other type of gadget besides E-Ink tablets. That's ultimately limiting when it comes to building next-generation personal tech ecosystems. In the meantime, where's my Kindle 2?
Chance of Godhood? 30% if he does more bragging in person, though that braying laugh of his could be a liability

DEKA/SEGWAY
Dean Kamen
Back in 2001, the rumor mill leading up to the launch of the Segway rivaled any Apple buzz. Before the product was even seen, people wrote about it being civilization-changing, and as important as the internet. Kamen's been on a roll (get it?) since then, not just developing the police Segway, the golf Segway and some kind of Segway footstool, but also perfecting a water purifying technology and a truly robotic prosthetic arm, all while greening up his own private island. He's did it all with few mainstream public appearances: Showing up at All Things D with a video of the robot arm—not the real thing—was a misstep in our minds, but appearing on Colbert with a working water purifier was definitely a sign of publicity (and worship) to come. If he can invent something for the gadget lovers of the world that is as bright and thoughtful and life changing as his humanitarian tech, he'd become the Jobs that Jobs wishes he was.
Chance of Godhood? A tragic 45%, seriously, this guy is Q, MacGyver and Hank Scorpio rolled into one—why isn't he a god already?

FACEBOOK
Mark Zuckerberg
The sad fact is that our whole world is shifting over from hardware to software. Sure, Kamens are still needed to make sure there's progress in mechanical devices, but our toys are less and less mechanical. Facebook is probably the best example of an internet platform that has stolen thunder from the gadget world. Trouble with Facebook is that it's big and amorphous, and the charming Zuckerberg needs a second act to propel him into the heavens. Still, he's like 13, with his whole life and a lot of money ahead. He'll think of something. But to be a Gadget God, he'll have to always depend on the hardware of others. At least until we have browsers in our brains with which we can access our social networks with.
Chance of Godhood? 95% even if it doesn't happen in my lifetime

These are all strong candidates, but the assumption is that there will, in fact, be new gadget gods. Maybe, like the ancient gods themselves, our new era doesn't have as much use for them. Maybe it's not just the transition to software, but the shift from bright ideas to massive team efforts. Or maybe Jobs and Gates are the kinds of guys that only come along once a century, and we're gonna have to wait a little longer for something that divine.

As predicted, wrapping up the war now will allow news of its aftermath and the inevitable tallying-up of the destruction wrought to be overshadowed by wall-to-wall coverage of Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, the child Obamas, the inaugural balls, the crazy DC traffic, the Obama move into the White House, the residual bitching of Bush staffers, the scramble for post-presidential interviews of various Bush officials, Obama's accomplishments on his first day in office, the Obama plan for the first 100 days, and the initiation of Congressional squabbling over the Obama agenda.

Good timing, PR-wise. For Israel. [Breitbart]

1. RECLAIM: Reframing our power relationship with Companies. Driven by Icon Toppling — A new socioquake transforms mainstream America and the world as the pillars of society are questioned and rejected.
Look for: The death of the Consumer, long live the Citizen.

You will die, in other words.

2. RETRENCH: Hunkering down and praying for survival. Driven by Cocooning: Retreating to home to protect oneself from the harsh, unpredictable realities of the outside world.
We'll see that: Cuddles Trump Coupons.

This also means that you will die. The last two are "Reset" and "Reinvent" and have equally inexplicable descriptions, but the alliteration makes them true. Read all about it! Now here is your mandatory honorary Faith Popcorn salvia appreciation video of the day:

Yesterday was the 36th annual big fancy UBS media conference. The organizers canceled a presentation on newspaper advertising. That's how bad it is. Though that didn't stop the following awful, excruciating projections for newspaper ad spending in '09 from being released:

Mr. Coppet is predicting that local ad spending in newspapers in 2008 could fall 9 percent from 2007 and in 2009 it could fall 21 percent from 2008.

For newspapers in general — local and national ads, in America and other regions around the world — the declines Mr. Coppet is forecasting are, he wrote in a report, “the worst in the history” of the medium.

The worst in history. That would be bad. May I have another, sir?

He is predicting a 16 percent decline in ad spending for local newspapers in 2008 compared with 2007. ..
And it will be almost as bad for local newspapers come next year, Mr. Coen predicted, with ad spending declining 12 percent compared with 2008.

That is like bad meatloaf topped with gravy made out of bad! And for dessert?

As a result, Mr. Smith forecast a “cultural shift” in the newspaper industry, as local and regional papers adjust from 30 percent profit margins to 10 percent margins — “forever.”

That's the most optimistic thing we've heard all day. [NYT]

• "Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia expects U.S. ad spending to drop 6.2% in 2009 to $161.8 billion."
• "WPP's agency GroupM sees a decline of 3% to $157 billion."
• "Fitch Ratings cautioned that U.S. ad spending next year would drop between 6% and 9%."
• "UBS is forecasting that U.S. ad spending will fall 6% in 2009 but doesn't anticipate the ad spending decline will be as steep as in 2001."
• "Online ad spending is expected to increase 5% in 2009, down from 16% growth in 2008, according to GroupM. TV spending also should fare relatively well in the downturn."

If these come true it will be a god damn blessing. [WSJ; pic by Nick Denton]

Fitch rates the debt of two newspaper companies, The McClatchy Co. and Tribune Co. as junk, with serious possibilities of default. It also assigns a negative outlook to both the companies and the newspaper sector, meaning their credit ratings are likely to deteriorate further...

Five of the top 10 ad categories, accounting for more than 40% of ad spend will be down, Fitch predicts: retail; automotive; financial services; general services; and airlines, hotels and car rentals.

Not general services! [E&P]

Oprah's O magazine has a whole bunch of the billionaire cult leader's favorite under-$100 gifts. Like $99 moisturizer. For the frugal!

Or take InStyle's advice and spend your monthly gas budget on a jar of wrinkle serum!

For the truly broke, how about Ladies Home Journal's thrifty gift guide suggestion of "a cold and sinus soak." Help your loved ones maintain their holiday sinus health in anticipation of a new year filled with no health insurance! .

Everything is either outrageous or depressing. What we're oh-so-subtly getting at is the fact that magazines that have always existed for the sole purpose of pimping too-expensive items out to an aspiration audience have not even begun to change their editorial mission in response to our new, dead economy. And we're talking about a lot of magazines. Everything from Vogue to Real Simple. Any magazine based on telling people what to buy is now facing a world where the old business plan won't necessarily work; but none of them, as far as we can tell, have a great backup plan to save themselves.

It's like any rich person forced to downgrade their own lifestyle: it's hard on the ego. The same goes for magazines. Many will cling to the fading idea of their own place in the luxury hierarchy rather than start chasing after lower-class dollars. In this version of the economy, there should only be about a third as many "luxury," acquisitive titles as there were two years ago, during the boom times. The remaining two thirds can either do the smart thing and recast themselves immediately as friends to the plebes; or they can fight for the few luxury dollars left, and probably go bankrupt in the process.