The two Governor races has to be as bad for Obama, as Democrats Jim McGreevey and Mark Warner winning the same offices in November '01 was for Bush. #barackobama
@intime: Well. the first problem is that asking people why they did something is not useful. People are notoriously bad at explaining their own rationale for anything. But asking those kinds of questions makes for a good (manufactured) story. #barackobama
I might remind people who are all incensed about the term limits issue. Term limits have traditionally been a Republican proposal. Term limits are, at base, conservative and anti-democratic #michaelbloomberg
@lionel-mandrake: How are they anti-democratic? A term limit, as a measure instituted via democratic vote, seems pretty ideologically neutral to me. #michaelbloomberg
@skt.smth: The first major piece of term limit legislation was the 2 term limit imposed on Presidents, which was imposed by the Republican Congress after the death of President Roosevelt. There was no popular vote.
As a political issue, term limits have historically been sought by conservatives and libertarians as a political ploy to break up what they see as entrenched Democratic constituencies (the Kennedys). The last notable time that term limits came to the fore as an issue was when Gingrich's "Contract With America" gang tried to get them imposed in Congress.
In New York City they were sought as part of the Conservative tilt that brought Giuliani to power. They were later confirmed, with the support of the mayor, in 1996. You are right, however, in saying that NYC term limits were sought through popular referendum, but that has not generally been the case, historically. #michaelbloomberg
@lionel-mandrake: No, I said "democratic vote" and that's precisely what I meant. Members of Congress are our representatives. To argue that passing a term limit in Congress is anti-democratic is to argue that passing anything in Congress is anti-democratic. You're entitled to make that point, but don't hold it against me if I fail to follow along.
Now, if a term limit were, in and of itself, an anti-democratic policy (as, say, abolishing womens' voting rights would be), I would see your point. But again, you haven't really demonstrated why it's anti-democratic. The fact that republicans/conservatives have, historically speaking, been the ones to float the idea doesn't prove that point.
Pareene your point of view here is as simplistic and incomplete as the point of view that says these gov elections were referenda "about Obama."
Things, particularly politics, can be complicated, and it's not helpful to understanding an election to reduce it to a single narrative.
It's definitely true that both dem candidates in NJ and VA sucked.
And that (ergo / e.g.) in VA Deeds pretty much failed to turn out the Obama coalition, specifically young people and African Americans.
And it's definitely true that both elections (particularly NJ) focused on local issues.
However -- and I can speak with more specific knowledge to VA than NJ -- "national" issues like big government, tea bagging, etc also came into play.
Obama has definitely lost ground with indp voters. (Rightly or wrongly. I personally think wrongly / unfairly but it's still a problem.)
My bottom line is that while it would have been nice to win NJ and VA gov, we're talking about shitty candidates who deserved to lose. I have more sympathy for Deeds than for Corzine (former Goldman CEO who was on ok senator but a craptastic gov), but they both ran terrible campaigns.
And my hope is that these losses will serve as a wake-up call for 2010, both for the DNC/DCCC/DSCC and (more importantly) for we "grass roots" and the "Obama coalition" overall. #barackobama
@jackbarber: p.s. Typing in these comment windows has become an excruciating experience. (the cursor keeping up with my typing.) Is this problem specific to me / my browser or is this a known issue. #barackobama
@jackbarber: Thanks for this comment.
One note about the independent voters: the number of people identifying as independent has boomed in part because of disaffected GOPers joining their ranks. It seems like at least some of the independent shift to the right is coming from these voters, many of whom were still identifying as Republican prior to the '08 election.
It's difficult to compare the level of independent voter support from then to now when the population of independent voters is increasing and the ID of "independent" is not affiliated with any specific political viewpoint. The strategists are going to have to get to work on the problem, since there are now more independents than either Democrats or Republicans. #barackobama
The New Jersey election results show that Obama needs to work harder to appeal to suppressed fat people. Maybe he should try putting on a spare tire. #barackobama
The problem you have is with the Democrats in NY, not really Bloomberg, so thank you for acknowledging it. Im not sure why we have to vilify someone who believes that he is the best person for the job. And apparently, majority of NYC has agreed with him 3 times in a row. If he was doing a terrible job, than he would have lost. But there was no way Thompson was going to win this...mainly because what were his proposals?
Hate Bloomberg or not, he has aided the arts, developed neighborhoods, while they are expensive, they are safe! I live in one of them, one that Bloomberg has dedicated most of his years in developing, expanding parks, bringing in schools and police presence and well my neighbors thank him. Yes, NYC is expensive, tell me something I dont know, but at least we get services for what we pay for. #michaelbloomberg
@Steverino Begins: The folks who really, reeeeeaaallly want this to be about Obama will find a way to explain those away. Don't you worry! #barackobama
Some how when Democrats won the governorships of NJ & VA in 2001, right after 9/11, no pundits called it the end of Bush or that the Democrats were resurgent. They're two states, that for their own peculiar local reasons, ALWAYS switch to the opposite party. #barackobama
@La Mareada: I posted a similar comment before reading all the threads, but yours does bring up another point: If the pundits didn't jump on Bush, it could've been out of respect for the recent tragedy and because back then, pundits might have tried staying closer to the middle of the road.
Earlier, I tried to find Bush's reaction to the 2001 election, but after 15 minutes, I had to give up.
@Magister: I think you're right about the pundits.
I'll add that if there was any time that VA and NJ were going to break their pattern of choosing the opposite party, one month after 9/11 would have been that time. But they didn't. #barackobama
On the East Coast, elections aren't really about voting along party lines. We're pretty confident that nobody is going to impose some whackadoo policy like banning abortions for anyone who gets grant money from the NEA, so it's really about who's going to make our lives easier. For homeowners, that tends to be the Republicans. For renters, that tends to be the Democrats. At least that's how it works in NYC. I'm a hardcore Democrat but I voted for Mayor Mike cause he's got my back as an upper middle class homeowner. Even when Rudy was mayor, once the liberals got a whiff of his conservative social policies, we beat him back into submission, all the while thoroughly enjoying the new, safe, clean verison of NYC he helped create. So yeah, this all means nada, but let the loons have their moment. They worked so hard, and that's really what elections should be all about, who worked the hardest. #barackobama
@misslinda: Which East Coast are you referring to? The EC of the US or the EC of your imagination?
The Newark Star Ledger had a picture of a Hoboken Condo (where the Gov lives???) with a banner draping virtually the entire building with the tag line of "Column A All the Way"
Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Camden, etc. counties traditionally vote for democrats. They did so last night. Essex and Hudson were 68% Corzine.
Union shocked most people when it went 51% Corzine and 43% Christie. Union was expected to have a 30 point gap. Similarly, Bergen, the most populous county, was about 50/50.
Yes property tax was the main issue. However, many voters saw Gov Corzine's progressive policies as the source of the skyrocketing rates. [I got it, most ppty tax is municipal, not state]. For example, the NJ legislative budget office put a $20,000,0000,000 price tag on his COAH initiative.
His inability / unwillingness to address the key issues of his 2004 election also sealed his fate. 1) Did not bring transparency. He actually went to the NJ Supreme Court to shield his email to his ex-girlfriend labor leader. 2) He failed to rein in corruption. Instead, he (and his foundations) contributed to organizations and/or campaigns managed by many of the indicted. 3) He did nothing for property tax. Hew was seen as the person who piled on more programs. Before responding, I am not judging the merits of his programs -- many I support.
It was his arrogance that alienated many democratic voters. #barackobama
@stacey.f.jaffe: Yes but my neighborhood improved tenfold under Mayor Mike, in safety and appearance. Also improved for me was subway service, bus service, the local parks, the local schools...I don't mind paying as long as I see results, which he delivered. #barackobama
Chris Christie beat Jon Corzine by four points in a state that went for Obama by 15 points — and where a Republican hadn’t won in over ten years. Unlike Virginia, Obama campaigned heavily for Corzine, calling him his "partner" and putting his prestige on the line. Joe Biden made a couple of campaign appearances, too, and the White House supervised the campaign in the final weeks after Corzine initially fell behind. Obama made the argument for Corzine all about Obama — and New Jersey, one of the bluest states in the nation, rejected him.
Obama will still be president for another three years, but the mystique is gone. New Jersey just taught Democrats in Congress a big lesson — Obama can’t get them re-elected. Being the President’s "partner" on his radical agenda is not a winning position; it wasn’t for Corzine in what should have been a secure blue state, and it certainly won’t be in moderate or conservative districts and states held by Democrats in the House and Senate. #barackobama
@ConAir34: Awww, honey, you back again? I'mma gonna let you finish, but New York's 23rd Congressional district election was the best election of all time! #barackobama
@misslinda: NY-23: With no backing, no real organization, and with the Rhino candidate throwing support to the Democrat the Conservative nominee still almost won. That is pretty spectacular.
The seat is lost until next year sure but what happened is that Conservatives told the GOP where to stick it. We do not want those types of candidates.
Do I care that the Republicans lost the seat? No. They didn't deserve it. What would the difference be if Owens or Scozzzafjdasjf (whatever) won. They were both liberal.
What happened was true conservatives took on the GOP over a candidate selection and the GOP blinked. #barackobama
@ConAir34: Yup, uh huh, "true conservatives" (i.e. bible thumping weirdos) took on the GOP...and lost. They lost. Just like Palin really and truly quit her job, your "true conservative" candidate lost the election in a district that historically votes Republican. Lost. Lost lost lost. And Palin quit quit quit. #barackobama
@ConAir34: way to show 'em, buddy! please, "true conservatives", keep taking on the GOP!
for your next trick, threaten to leave the country if they don't take you seriously! and make sure you follow through! it's the ONLY way they'll learn!
@ConAir34: "Still almost won"? This type of excuse making is very unbecoming, Con. Take your licks, admit your team lost this one and get on with life. If you spend all your time apologizing for a party that doesn't give a rat's ass about you, you're going to be very busy. #barackobama
@Bristol Cities: Ok I need to clear this up. I am a conservative mostly and tend to vote Republican. I am no kind of bible thumper (agnostic). I am ultimately sick of Rhinos more than anything.
Did it suck that Hoffman lost? Sure. Was it awesome that he got so close? You bet.
Liberals should be happy that conservatives like myself are pressuring the GOP. I want fiscally conservative politicians. I could give a crap if they ever went to church. #barackobama
@ConAir34: Who said I dislike? I love everybody...until they give me a reason not to. What I have found to be a vile intrusion is the way "conservatives" try to shove their religious beliefs down my throat. Anti-abortion legislation, bans on gay marriage, withholding funding for artists who are just a tad too racy for their tastes, a general disdain for science including a lack of funding for stem cell research.... Those are the people you're in bed with. You may be there for the "financial" aspect of it, but they're there to make sure that their "conservative values" get written into as much legislation as possible. *shudder* they give me the willies. #barackobama
@misslinda: Don't forget abstinence-only education, a program which has been proven over and over again to not work yet continues to be pushed by conservatives as the only way to educate teenagers about sex. #barackobama
@misslinda: See here is where I get confused. You don't want someone shoving their beliefs down your throat but apparently don't mind shoving your beliefs down theirs.
You seem to be Pro abortion, pro gay marriage, pro federal funding for art, pro federal funding for stem cells while I am not (actually I don't care much either way about gay marriage)
My beliefs aren't based on religion but you would still supplant those with your own so how are you any different than they are? #barackobama
@Sev: Right, that's a biggie. (That's what she said!) The list is basically endless. They want everyone to live by their own "moral" code, whether they themselves follow that code or not (footsie in the mens room anyone?). #barackobama
@ConAir34: Dummy, nobody is "pro abortion" and nobody's making you get opposite-married, it's about choice (see johnny_carsick's post for more info on the topic). #barackobama
@ConAir34: Ooh. I so can't wait to start forcing people to get abortions and get gay married. Do I have to put a gun to their heads or is that optional? #barackobama
I voted for Bloomberg this time out, and now that he's an "independent" I can justify it.
That said, having lived in this city for 90% of my life, I can safely say he's best mayor we've had in my lifetime.
Gone is the nasty, shouting tone of our politics that seemed to dominate in the Koch and Giuliani era. Greenspace, closing down chunks of Broadway. 311. I could go on. These are things Bloomberg could accomplish precisely because he is an autocrat.
You really are deluding yourself if you think that Thompson would have been an effective mayor. Until the Dems clean up the party in this town, any Democratic mayor who gets elected is going to be so mortgaged to the Unions and other special interests, that they will be completely unable to function.
My issue with both the New York and New Jersey democratic elections was it seemed they both just ran on "Vote for me I'm not that other guy" and "Vote for me, you know me, I'm not that other guy" and you know, "Obama." Both of which did very little to make me feel any way other than meh about the whole thing. They did nothing to adopt Obama's grassroots, "get out there and connect with people" style. Where were the conversations with voters? Where was the connection?
It seems to me all they wanted was Obama's endorsement in order to ride it out like a networked business card at an interview, but do none of the work themselves to actually get in office. It was lazy. They used the teacher's pass to goof off in the halls. Pitiful, if you ask me and the end result was deserved. So I attribute none of this to Obama's name power, as it were, if the candidates don't want to actually work for the position.
@Spirit Fingers: Well put. It sounds like the Repubs co-opted the Dems's strategy they used during the the last major election: the 'vote for me because I'm not Bush' strategy. #barackobama
@Spirit Fingers: Totally agreed. I think Jersey's election had about 1% to do with Obama and more to do with corruption and tax hikes under Corzine's watch. Bloomberg won in NYC, b/c he was the known enemy, as opposed to Thompson who only ran on being a Democrat, not rich and being liked by Obama, which wasn't even enough to get Dems to vote for him.
I don't know much about the VA election, but the Northeast elections had little to nothing to do with Obama and a lot to do with people not being happy with what they had. #barackobama
@Gawkerati: Not all. And he also called his opponent "fat." Which is a great way to make the underdog sympathetic and piteous to those who needed very little to not vote for him, or just stay home. Wasn't classy, and it didn't endear him to frustrated voters who pay obnoxious property taxes. That was Christie's mantra. He held to it. And won. All I saw in Corzine ads was an Obama footnote. #barackobama
@momof3wildkids: Oopsie, didn't really mean to promote that. I'm not saying the dems didn't use that strategy (Yes, Kerry) once, but this wasn't one of those times. Bush was leaving office so the "Vote for me I'm not Bush" strategy didn't apply here. The country wanted all around change, not just one less dumb cowboy in office. It was waaayyy bigger than Yosemite Sam there.
But, you know, I always like your debate, Momchick. Where the hell is Chillbear in all this? Your team is looking a little lite these days. #barackobama
@Spirit Fingers: Yes, I feel lonely without CBL as my conservative wingman. Momchick? Hmm, like that a lot.
I have to quibble with you that the "I'm no Bush" strategy was last used with Kerry. While I agree that BO didn't use it (until he got into office and blamed all of our current situation on Dubya, who was a big, dumb cowboy), many liberal Senators and Congressman used that strategy against their Republican opponents to get into office last year.
I think that last night's results in NJ and Va isn't a referendum on Obama, but rather it reflects the nervousness of independents regarding the expensive sweeping changes Obama, Pelosi and Reid are proposing.
I will be curious to see how the Blue Dogs vote on Cap and Trade and health care after last night's results. I think only then will be fully grasp the results of Dem gubernatorial losses. #barackobama
Our two candidates in Virginia were terrible. Both of them. A vote for Dem. Creigh Deeds was a vote for something that didn't come close to a shadow of an approximation of Obama. It was basically a vote for "that guy who isn't misogynist McDonnell." In-state jobs, the state economy and our mess of a transportation system were the big things here. Local issues. No one was thinking about Obama when they cast their votes. #barackobama
Chris Christie's victory speech sounded as if he'd been elected Governor of Ohio or Alabama. Nice reference to the hardened seniors, the farmer, and the small biz owner. Urban/single/divorced/renters/people under 50, etc. Jersians, you are, heretofore, fucked and officially disenfranchised. #barackobama
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I'm not really clear on why the news media is conveniently ignoring this fact. #barackobama
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As a political issue, term limits have historically been sought by conservatives and libertarians as a political ploy to break up what they see as entrenched Democratic constituencies (the Kennedys). The last notable time that term limits came to the fore as an issue was when Gingrich's "Contract With America" gang tried to get them imposed in Congress.
In New York City they were sought as part of the Conservative tilt that brought Giuliani to power. They were later confirmed, with the support of the mayor, in 1996. You are right, however, in saying that NYC term limits were sought through popular referendum, but that has not generally been the case, historically. #michaelbloomberg
11/05/09
Now, if a term limit were, in and of itself, an anti-democratic policy (as, say, abolishing womens' voting rights would be), I would see your point. But again, you haven't really demonstrated why it's anti-democratic. The fact that republicans/conservatives have, historically speaking, been the ones to float the idea doesn't prove that point.
11/04/09
Things, particularly politics, can be complicated, and it's not helpful to understanding an election to reduce it to a single narrative.
It's definitely true that both dem candidates in NJ and VA sucked.
And that (ergo / e.g.) in VA Deeds pretty much failed to turn out the Obama coalition, specifically young people and African Americans.
And it's definitely true that both elections (particularly NJ) focused on local issues.
However -- and I can speak with more specific knowledge to VA than NJ -- "national" issues like big government, tea bagging, etc also came into play.
Obama has definitely lost ground with indp voters. (Rightly or wrongly. I personally think wrongly / unfairly but it's still a problem.)
My bottom line is that while it would have been nice to win NJ and VA gov, we're talking about shitty candidates who deserved to lose. I have more sympathy for Deeds than for Corzine (former Goldman CEO who was on ok senator but a craptastic gov), but they both ran terrible campaigns.
And my hope is that these losses will serve as a wake-up call for 2010, both for the DNC/DCCC/DSCC and (more importantly) for we "grass roots" and the "Obama coalition" overall. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
One note about the independent voters: the number of people identifying as independent has boomed in part because of disaffected GOPers joining their ranks. It seems like at least some of the independent shift to the right is coming from these voters, many of whom were still identifying as Republican prior to the '08 election.
It's difficult to compare the level of independent voter support from then to now when the population of independent voters is increasing and the ID of "independent" is not affiliated with any specific political viewpoint. The strategists are going to have to get to work on the problem, since there are now more independents than either Democrats or Republicans. #barackobama
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More like buffalo-winger with tangy blue cheese on top. Yummie. #barackobama
11/04/09
Hate Bloomberg or not, he has aided the arts, developed neighborhoods, while they are expensive, they are safe! I live in one of them, one that Bloomberg has dedicated most of his years in developing, expanding parks, bringing in schools and police presence and well my neighbors thank him. Yes, NYC is expensive, tell me something I dont know, but at least we get services for what we pay for. #michaelbloomberg
11/04/09
[www.cbsnews.com] #barackobama
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Earlier, I tried to find Bush's reaction to the 2001 election, but after 15 minutes, I had to give up.
11/04/09
I'll add that if there was any time that VA and NJ were going to break their pattern of choosing the opposite party, one month after 9/11 would have been that time. But they didn't. #barackobama
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11/04/09
The Newark Star Ledger had a picture of a Hoboken Condo (where the Gov lives???) with a banner draping virtually the entire building with the tag line of "Column A All the Way"
Essex, Hudson, Bergen, Camden, etc. counties traditionally vote for democrats. They did so last night. Essex and Hudson were 68% Corzine.
Union shocked most people when it went 51% Corzine and 43% Christie. Union was expected to have a 30 point gap. Similarly, Bergen, the most populous county, was about 50/50.
Yes property tax was the main issue. However, many voters saw Gov Corzine's progressive policies as the source of the skyrocketing rates. [I got it, most ppty tax is municipal, not state]. For example, the NJ legislative budget office put a $20,000,0000,000 price tag on his COAH initiative.
His inability / unwillingness to address the key issues of his 2004 election also sealed his fate. 1) Did not bring transparency. He actually went to the NJ Supreme Court to shield his email to his ex-girlfriend labor leader. 2) He failed to rein in corruption. Instead, he (and his foundations) contributed to organizations and/or campaigns managed by many of the indicted. 3) He did nothing for property tax. Hew was seen as the person who piled on more programs. Before responding, I am not judging the merits of his programs -- many I support.
It was his arrogance that alienated many democratic voters. #barackobama
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Obama will still be president for another three years, but the mystique is gone. New Jersey just taught Democrats in Congress a big lesson — Obama can’t get them re-elected. Being the President’s "partner" on his radical agenda is not a winning position; it wasn’t for Corzine in what should have been a secure blue state, and it certainly won’t be in moderate or conservative districts and states held by Democrats in the House and Senate. #barackobama
11/04/09
11/04/09
The seat is lost until next year sure but what happened is that Conservatives told the GOP where to stick it. We do not want those types of candidates.
Do I care that the Republicans lost the seat? No. They didn't deserve it. What would the difference be if Owens or Scozzzafjdasjf (whatever) won. They were both liberal.
What happened was true conservatives took on the GOP over a candidate selection and the GOP blinked. #barackobama
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11/04/09
for your next trick, threaten to leave the country if they don't take you seriously! and make sure you follow through! it's the ONLY way they'll learn!
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Did it suck that Hoffman lost? Sure. Was it awesome that he got so close? You bet.
Liberals should be happy that conservatives like myself are pressuring the GOP. I want fiscally conservative politicians. I could give a crap if they ever went to church. #barackobama
11/04/09
Having Scosazefadf (whatever) win would actually be worse than having Owens win.
I expect a donkey to act like a donkey.
I am sick of elephants acting like donkeys. #barackobama
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What are you? #barackobama
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You seem to be Pro abortion, pro gay marriage, pro federal funding for art, pro federal funding for stem cells while I am not (actually I don't care much either way about gay marriage)
My beliefs aren't based on religion but you would still supplant those with your own so how are you any different than they are? #barackobama
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it's about having the option, Mr. Party of Freedom Guy. no one's forcing anyone to get gay married or abort their unborn fetuses.
are you not able or not willing to see the crucial difference there?
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That said, having lived in this city for 90% of my life, I can safely say he's best mayor we've had in my lifetime.
Gone is the nasty, shouting tone of our politics that seemed to dominate in the Koch and Giuliani era. Greenspace, closing down chunks of Broadway. 311. I could go on. These are things Bloomberg could accomplish precisely because he is an autocrat.
You really are deluding yourself if you think that Thompson would have been an effective mayor. Until the Dems clean up the party in this town, any Democratic mayor who gets elected is going to be so mortgaged to the Unions and other special interests, that they will be completely unable to function.
That is a fact. #michaelbloomberg
11/04/09
11/04/09
It seems to me all they wanted was Obama's endorsement in order to ride it out like a networked business card at an interview, but do none of the work themselves to actually get in office. It was lazy. They used the teacher's pass to goof off in the halls. Pitiful, if you ask me and the end result was deserved. So I attribute none of this to Obama's name power, as it were, if the candidates don't want to actually work for the position.
11/04/09
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I don't know much about the VA election, but the Northeast elections had little to nothing to do with Obama and a lot to do with people not being happy with what they had. #barackobama
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But, you know, I always like your debate, Momchick. Where the hell is Chillbear in all this? Your team is looking a little lite these days. #barackobama
11/04/09
I have to quibble with you that the "I'm no Bush" strategy was last used with Kerry. While I agree that BO didn't use it (until he got into office and blamed all of our current situation on Dubya, who was a big, dumb cowboy), many liberal Senators and Congressman used that strategy against their Republican opponents to get into office last year.
I think that last night's results in NJ and Va isn't a referendum on Obama, but rather it reflects the nervousness of independents regarding the expensive sweeping changes Obama, Pelosi and Reid are proposing.
I will be curious to see how the Blue Dogs vote on Cap and Trade and health care after last night's results. I think only then will be fully grasp the results of Dem gubernatorial losses. #barackobama
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