Jacob Fischler at BuzzFeed reports that in the autumn of 2012, a single (unknown) millionaire staked, and lost, “at least $4 million” on Mitt Romney trouncing Barack Obama on November 6. Fischler cites a working paper by Microsoft’s David Rothschild and Columbia’s Rajiv Sethi, who studied trading patterns on the now-illegal InTrade.com, which allowed armchair speculators to bet on almost anything.
God, remember when this seemed like another tossup? All the "insiders" say this one's Obama's. Smart Republicans are looking for good 2012 candidates. Over at InTrade, traders are betting heavily on an Obama victory. As you can see, after an odd September dip (one that wasn't relfected in other market prediction sites), Obama's up to nearly 74. [InTrade]